Gasoline prices in the U.S. are off on another tear. The national average just went by $3.57 for regular and due to a little problem of several major refineries that serve the U.S.'s East Coast shutting down, here in Northern Virginia we are running 20 to 25 cents a gallon higher than normal. The wisest of the prognosticators say we should seeing circa $4+ a gallon by late spring so the Washington area will likely be seeing circa $4.50. In case you missed it, they are already getting $5 for regular down by the Kennedy Center. Somebody in Congress is sure to notice this soon.

The fight over the Keystone Pipeline began in earnest last spring, when James Hansen at NASA pointed out that heavily tapping the Canadian tarsands would mean it was “essentially game over” for the climate. Since planetary destruction is what even the dimmest analyst might describe as a less than optimal policy outcome, the oil industry and its allies in Congress have since done everything they can think of to change the subject.

First the pipeline became a jobs project - until the one study not funded by Transcanada showed it might kill as many jobs as it would create. Now even the pipeline company says permanent employees will number “in the hundreds.”

Next it became an energy security issue - until a look at refinery contracts made clear the oil was to be refined and shipped overseas.

Let me predict the next talking point right now: with gas prices rising, the pipeline will let Americans fill up for less.

According to the National Wildlife Federation, that would translate to about $3 for an average 15-gallon fill-up - as independent energy economist Philip Verleger put it, with Keystone the industry “will be able to use its market power to raise the heavy crude price to Midwest refiners above the level that would prevail in a competitive market.” Certainly that’s been the case in the past: Stephen Kretzmann of Oil Change International recently calculated that "over the last two decades the U.S. has almost tripled the amount of Canadian oil we've imported into the US, and during that time average gasoline price has more than tripled.” The Midwest states most at risk of higher prices if Keystone is built include some of the hardest hit economically in the country: Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin.

In other words, the Keystone Pipeline is among other things an attempt to manipulate prices - which may not come as too great a shock to an American public used to watching the fossil fuel industry manipulate prices.

If we actually wanted to insulate our economy from the effects of oil price increases, we’d need to do a couple of things. One is slow speculation by hedge funds and their ilk in oil markets. Business Week reported this week that $11 billion in betting money has entered oil markets “on the long side” in recent weeks - i.e., people trying to cash in by squeezing the price higher. The last time gas went above $4 a gallon, in the summer of 2008, oil executives later admitted that about a quarter of the price hike was the direct result of this speculating frenzy.

But the longer-term fix is the obvious one: get our economy off fossil fuel. Every hybrid car we build, every solar panel we erect, every windmill that arises - each takes us closer to the day when we can tell Iran, Exxon, Venezuela, Shell, Transcanada and the rest exactly what they can do with their oil. The less we use oil, the less they can use us.

That reduction, of course, is the real nightmare scenario for those companies and countries. It’s why, in Washington and around the world, they’ve blocked every attempt to really deal with climate change and the other troubles fossil fuel produces. They figure - so far rightly - that they can buy enough politicians to keep their record profits flowing. But 800,000 Americans sent the Senate messages opposing Keystone in a single day last week; it’s a sign that people are starting to wake up, which is what you’d expect after the year with the most weather disasters in our history.

Maybe manipulated rises in the price of gas will have the same effect. It’s time to get angry, and for once to get angry at the right people: the fossil fuel industry has already damaged enough lives.

Originally published February 21, 2012 at The Hill

This is a guest post by Tobias Rasmussen, Senior Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF, and Agustin Roitman, Economist, IMF. This post originally appeared on the VoxEU.org website here.

Recent developments in oil markets and the global economy have, once again, triggered concerns about the impact of oil price shocks around the world. This column wonders whether the fuss is really necessary. It presents evidence of relatively small negative effects of oil price increases.

Increases in international oil prices over the past couple years, explained partly by strong growth in large emerging and developing economies, have raised concerns that high oil prices could endanger the shaky recovery in advanced economies and small oil-importing countries.

The notion that oil prices can have a macroeconomic impact is well accepted; the debate has centred mainly on magnitude and transmission channels. Most studies have focused on the US and other OECD economies. And much of the discussion has related to the role of monetary policy, labour markets, and the intensity of oil in production (Hamilton 1983, 1996, 2005, 2009, Barsky and Kilian 2004, Bernanke et al 1997, Blanchard and Gali 2007).

The manner in which oil prices affect emerging and developing economies has received surprisingly little attention compared with the large body of evidence for advanced economies. In an attempt to provide a broader and more encompassing view on the impact of oil price shocks, we document in recent research (Rasmussen and Roitman 2011) key stylised facts that characterise the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic aggregates across the world.

The big picture

It is no surprise that import bills go up when oil prices increase. It is more surprising that GDP often goes up too. Figure 1 depicts the correlation between oil prices and GDP for 144 countries from 1970 to 2010. More precisely, it shows the cyclical components of oil prices and GDP, with long-term trends excluded. The set includes 19 oil-exporting countries, represented by red bars, and 125 oil-importing countries, represented by blue bars. A positive correlation indicates that when oil prices go up, GDP goes up, and when oil prices go down, GDP goes down.

The message is clear. In more than 80% of the countries, the correlation between oil prices and GDP is positive, and in only two advanced economies – the US and Japan – it is negative. One of the contributing factors to this pattern is that in 90% of the countries, exports tend to move in the same direction as oil prices.

Figure 1. Correlation between the cyclical component of real GDP and the cyclical component of real oil prices (1970-2010)

Anatomy of oil shock episodes

Given that periods of high oil prices have generally coincided with good times for the world economy, especially in recent years, it is important to disentangle the impact of oil price increases on economic activity during episodes of markedly high oil prices. Following Hamilton (2003), we identify 12 episodes since 1970 in which oil prices have reached three-year highs. The median increase in oil prices in these years was 27%.

We study the behaviour of macroeconomic aggregates during these episodes by comparing the median annual change in a particular variable during oil shock years to the median annual change over the entire sample period. This tells us of any unusual observed changes (Figure 2).

We find no evidence of a widespread contemporaneous negative effect on economic output across oil-importing countries, but rather value and volume increases in both imports and exports. It is only in the year after the shock that we find a negative impact on output for a small majority of countries.

Figure 2. Real GDP growth in oil shock episodes less median growth (1970-2010, in percent)

Small effects for oil importers

To analyse multiple countries and control for global conditions, we adapt the basic autoregressive model of Hamilton (2003, 2005).

Our main interest is in the effect of an oil price shock on the economy of a typical oil-importing country. Taking into account the fact that higher oil prices are generally positively associated with good global conditions, we find that the effect becomes larger and more significant as the ratio of oil imports to GDP increases (Figure 3).

To trace out the full impact of an oil shock, we calculate impulse responses for a 25% increase in oil prices (Figure 4). The results indicate that the typical oil importer can expect a cumulative GDP loss of about 0.3% over the first two years, with little subsequent impact. For countries with oil imports of more than 4% of GDP (ie at or above the average for middle- and low-income oil importers), however, the loss increases to about 0.8% – and this loss increases further for those with oil imports above 5% of GDP. In contrast to the oil importers, oil exporters show little impact on GDP in the first two years but then a substantial increase consistent with the positive income effect, with real GDP 0.6% higher three years after the initial shock.

Figure 3.

To put these numbers in perspective, it is useful to think of an economy where oil accounts for 4% of total expenditure and where aggregate spending is determined entirely by demand. If the quantity of oil consumption remains unchanged, then a 25% increase in the price of oil will cause spending on other items to decrease and, hence, real GDP to contract by 1% of the total. From this reference point, one would expect the possibility of substituting away from oil to reduce the overall impact on GDP. At the same time, there could also be factors working in the opposite direction, via, for example, confidence effects, market frictions, or changes in monetary policy. With our estimates of the GDP loss at only about half the level implied by the direct price effect on the import bill, the results presented here suggest the size of any such magnifying effects, if present, is not substantial across countries.

Are oil price increases really that bad?

Conventional wisdom has it that oil shocks are bad for oil-importing countries. This is grounded in the experience of slumps in many advanced economies during the 1970s. It is also consistent with the large body of research on the impact of higher oil prices on the US economy, although the magnitude and channels of the effect are still being debated.

Our recent research indicates that oil prices tend to be surprisingly closely associated with good times for the global economy. Indeed, we find that the US has been somewhat of an outlier in the way that it has been negatively affected by oil price increases. Across the world, oil price shock episodes have generally not been associated with a contemporaneous decline in output but, rather, with increases in both imports and exports. There is evidence of lagged negative effects on output, particularly for OECD economies, but the magnitude has typically been small.

Controlling for global economic conditions, and thus abstracting from our finding that oil price increases generally appear to be demand-driven, makes the impact of higher oil prices stand out more clearly. For a given level of world GDP, we do find that oil prices have a negative effect on oil-importing countries and also that cross-country differences in the magnitude of the impact depend to a large extent on the relative magnitude of oil imports. The effect is still not particularly large, however, with our estimates suggesting that a 25% increase in oil prices will typically cause a loss of real GDP in oil-importing countries of less than half of 1%, spread over 2 to 3 years.

These findings suggest that the higher import demand in oil-exporting countries resulting from oil price increases has an important contemporaneous offsetting effect on economic activity in the rest of the world, and that the adverse consequences are mostly relatively mild and occur with a lag.

The fact that the negative impact of higher oil prices has generally been quite small does not mean that the effect can be ignored. Some countries have clearly been negatively affected by high oil prices. Moreover, our results do not rule out more adverse effects from a future shock that is driven more by lower oil supply than the more demand-driven increases in oil prices that have been the norm over the past two decades. In terms of policy lessons, our findings suggest that efforts to reduce dependence on oil could help reduce the exposure to oil price shocks and hence costs associated with macroeconomic volatility. At the same time, given a certain level of oil imports, strengthening economic linkages to oil exporters could also work as a natural shock absorber.

The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.

References

Barsky, Robert B and Lutz Kilian (2004), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4):115-134.

Bernanke, Ben S, Mark Gertler, and Mark Watson (1997), "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 28(1):91-157.

Blanchard, Olivier J and Jordi Galí (2007), "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?", NBER Working Paper No. 13368.

Hamilton, James D (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II", Journal of Political Economy, 91(2):228-248.

Hamilton, James D (1996), "This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2):215-220.

Hamilton, James D (2003), "What is an Oil Shock?" Journal of Econometrics, 113(2): 363-398.

Hamilton, James D (2005), "Oil and the Macroeconomy" in S Durlaf and L Blume(eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, MacMillan, 2nd ed.

Hamilton, James D (2009), "The Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08", NBER Working Paper No. 15002.

Rasmussen, Tobias N and Agustin Roitman (2011), “Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really that Bad?”, IMF Working Paper WP/11/194.

During the past seven years, TheOilDrum.com has hosted analysis and discussion surrounding the possibility and implications of a near term peak in global oil production and importance of energy to society in general. Out of the ~8,500 articles posted here (all searchable by keyword in upper left), the list below comprises what each author considered some of their most relevant content.

The list is in alphabetical order, by last name of Oil Drum contributor. Click on the author's name to go to their list of selected articles. At the end of each section, a link is given to the complete list of all articles by that author.

List of Authors

Gail the Actuary

Ugo Bardi

Art Berman

Jason Bradford

Joules Burn

François Cellier

David Clarke

Samuel Foucher

Nicole Foss

Big Gav

Prof. Goose

Nate Hagens

Phil Hart

Rembrandt Koppelaar

Rune Likvern

Euan Mearns

David Murphy

Heading Out

Jérôme à Paris

Engineer-Poet

Robert Rapier

Luis de Sousa

Stuart Staniford

Jeff Vail

Chris Vernon

List of Articles

Gail the Actuary

Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Up Against the Growth Ceiling.
Write up of an introductory presentation, explaining our how limited oil supply is causing recession and lower economic growth.
Are We Reaching Limits to Growth?
Looks at our current financial and other problems, in relationship to Limits to Growth (from the 1972 book by that name).
IEO 2011: A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA
Explains why the latest official forecast of the US Energy Information Administration appears optimistic.
Kidding Ourselves About Middle East/North Africa Oil Production.
Why claims about future high oil production from Middle East/North Africa are likely overstated.
The Link Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1
Why limited oil supply is likely to be associated with declining debt availability.
What's Behind Egypt's Problems?
Explains the connection between declining oil exports and Egypt's "Arab Spring."
Is It Really Possible to Decouple Energy Growth from GDP Growth?
Explores why growth in energy efficiency seems to have stopped after 2000. Also see Thoughts on Why Energy Use and CO2 Emissions are Rising as Fast as GDP
The US Electric Grid: Will it be Our Undoing? – Revisited
Why the US electrical transmission system has so many challenges, and the many obstacles to improving it.
Social Security and Medicare Funding Issues: Even Worse when One Considers Resource Constraint
Why Social Security and Medicare funding issues are even worse, when Peak Oil is considered.
What Can We Learn from Gift Economies?
Campfire post relating to a system where individuals gain status not by what they have, but by what they give away.
There is plenty of oil but . . .
There is a huge amount of oil that theoretically can be extracted, but the question is whether the cost will be cheap enough for us to be able to afford to extract it. If the oil is too expensive to extract, the shortage of oil seems to cause a recession, similar to what we are having now.
Scientific American's Path to Sustainability: Let's Think about the Details
Scientific American presents "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030" in its November 2010 issue. I explain why it wouldn't work.
Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind
Offers ten reasons why wind is not as an attractive an option as many think it is.
Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed
Explanation of why my financial forecasts at the beginning of 2008 turned out to be correct.
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008
A financial forecast for 2008 that in retrospect has proven accurate.
Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem?
Post written before I became an Oil Drum staff member that lays out may of the major issues that I continue to write about.
Read more posts by Gail the Actuary. (Real name, Gail Tverberg)
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Ugo Bardi

"Peak Civilization": The Fall of the Roman Empire
A post attempting to apply system dynamics to the fall of the Roman Empire which - as far as I know - has not been done, so far.
Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized
With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along.
The Universal Mining Machine
Why can’t we build a universal mining machine here, on Earth, and stop worrying about running out of mineral resources?
Mind-sized Hubbert
What is it, exactly, that causes production peaks for oil and for other non renewable resources?
The dark side of coal - some historical insights on energy and the economy
In this post, I start to tell the story of coal in Italy and how the fortunes of the country went in parallel with those of coal well until mid 20th century.
The church, the peak, and my old watch
A post about leaving something that lasts a long time and that doesn't need precious resources that can't be replaced.
The post-peak car
A fantastic account of how a 1970s Fiat 500 has been retrofitted with batteries and an electric motor to create the Post Peak Car.
How to Drive your Elephant - Dealing with Complex Problems
How elephant driving may be seen as as a metaphor for controlling complex systems.
Peak Minerals
A post taken from a report co-authored with Marco Pagani which examines the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and makes the case for the peak and decline of many of these minerals in the near future.
Peak Caviar
"Peak Caviar" is another confirmation of how common the "Hubbert" behavior is. It doesn't matter if a resource is theoretically renewable, as sturgeons and whales are. If sturgeons or whales are killed much faster than they can reproduce, then they behave as a non renewable resource; just as crude oil.
Read more posts by Ugo Bardi
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Arthur E. Berman

Arthur Berman talks about Shale Gas
McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery
Co-written with Joshua H. Rosenfeld, this post looks at a significant discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by the McMoRan Exploration Company that may contain 2-6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves.
Shale Gas—Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations
Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers. This conclusion falls out of a detailed evaluation of shale-dominated company financial statements and individual well decline curve analyses.
BP Macondo Blowout - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks
A post co-written with William Semple.
Is the Drilling Moratorium Long Enough? No, Not Really
The key issues around the drilling moratorium as I see them.
What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster?
The blowout and oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a flawed well plan that did not include enough cement between the 7-inch production casing and the 9 7/8-inch protection casing. The presumed blowout preventer (BOP) failure is an important but secondary issue.
ExxonMobil’s Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays
Most analysts believe that the ExxonMobil acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) represents a dramatic shift in strategy by the premier exploration and production (E&P) company, and a validation of shale plays. It is neither. The move represents a considered and deliberate choice that acknowledges diminished opportunities for the oil giant to add and replace reserves.
Read more posts by Arthur Berman
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Jason Bradford

The Thermodynamics of Local Foods
I wrote this in response to a slew of media attention that argued against local foods. However, based on thermodynamics, only a predominantly local food system will be sustainable in the long run.
Ecological Economics and the Food System
This is a summary of energy use in the U.S. food system placed in the context of ecological economics. Our current food system is structured inappropriately for long-term viability, and the kinds of shifts required to make it more enduring are discussed.
Save it for the Combine
Few people understand how critical certain technologies are to their survival and way of life. The combine allows one person to harvest the food for hundreds, saving enormous labor while using liquid fuels. I argue that any rationing of liquid fuels or use of biofuels be prioritized for the combine.
The Food System and Public Policy
Many in the U.S. like to think we live in a free market economy. But when it comes to development of the food system public policy explains much of what we see.
The Food System and Resilience
Resilience is a concept from ecology that can be applied to any complex system. When the current food system is examined using a resilience framework it is found to be very fragile. The essay concludes by outlining the possible emergence of more resilient food systems given new economic and energetic realities.
Energy Descent and Agricultural Population
This article includes a graph that combines data on energy use and percent rural population, showing that more energy in a society lowers the proportion engaged in farming. Given the shape of this relationship, can we make some educated speculations about shifting labor demographics in highly industrialized nations during energy descent?
Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
I believe there’s the possibility of a near-term collapse of complex societies given a financial shock, perhaps precipitated or exacerbated by political and energy crises. This photo essay conveys this potential from an imagined future, with an emphasis on the food system.
I have an interest in economics, in the broad sense, of how and why people and societies chose to invest and consume, and what this means for resources and the environment. The following three essays share a common theme: resources are only constrained in a world with exponentially growing demand for more stuff. Reducing demand is more important than increasing supply, and ultimately we have no choice. However, conscientious curtailment comes up against both engrained pyscho-social reward systems, which are largely explored in the first two essays, and the structure of our financial system, which is touched upon in the third.
Finding Healthy Addictions
Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?
Advice to Pres. Obama( #6): Beware the Hungry Ghosts
Read more posts by Jason Bradford
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Joules Burn

Khurais Me A River
An early look at the development of the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery, reviewing past efforts to produce from the field.
Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah
An animated history of the drilling sequence in one part of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved)
A critical look at satellite imagery analysis which reached some faulty conclusions regarding the behavior of the Ghawar field upon depletion.
Abqaiq and Eat It Too
A look at recent developments in the giant Abqaiq field in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery combined with published reports.
Local Scientist Splits Water, Saves World, Gets On TV
A skeptical look at recent claims of a breakthrough in water electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells
An in-depth look at the first wells drilled in the five operational areas for the Ghawar field, including their current status.
Who Killed the Electric Gas Tank?
A look at claims of a breakthrough in ultracapacitors for energy storage in electric vehicles.
Saudi Aramco Loses Count, Drills Too Many Wells In Ghawar
An satellite imagery analysis of Saudi drilling activity in the southern-most part of the Ghawar field, showing that more has been going on than publicly revealed.
Lessons Left Unlearnt From 2003 Gulf of Mexico Near-Spill
A look in the US Materials Management Service datafiles revealing a number of accidents and near misses which preceded the massive BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude Confessions: Massive Saudi Oil Spill in 1993?
A look at how Saudi oil is transported out of the country in the context of claims of a secret oil spill.
Read more posts by Joules Burn
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François Cellier

Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse
This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises.
Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland?
In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels.
The Slavery of Oil
A review of a proposed methodology that would allow me to quantify the price level of crude oil at which our economies will stall.
Read more posts by François Cellier
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David Clarke

The Failure of Networked Systems: The Repercussions of Systematic Risk Revisited
Cascading collapse and why the corporate drive towards increasing efficiencies could be driving our interacting networked systems towards this mode of collapse.
The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give us Warnings when They are About to Fail?
The flaw in the techno-cornucopian dream: Modeling why and how a networked resource-extraction system fails.
Read more posts by David Clarke
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Samuel Foucher

Analysis of Decline Rates
This post offers a kind of reverse engineering of what numbers could be behind the long and detailed IEA decline analysis in their last report (2008 IEA WEO). A tentative decline structure for the post-peak Super-Giant and Giants oilfields is offered as well as a possible scenario for future production.
Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand
In this post I show that the key driver behind the oil price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply.
Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts
Having a good estimate of the decline rate of the resource base (most estimates are ranging between 2 and 6%/year) is fundamental for the precision of supply forecasts derived from megaproject database.
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data
This article is an attempt to apply the Hybrid Shock Model (HSM) on Saudi Arabia's oil production. In a nutshell, the HSM is trying to model the observed production profile from the discovery curve by simulating the different phases involved in the development of oilfields (initial discovery, planning, build, maturity).
Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group.
An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers
Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production. The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online.
The Loglet Analysis
Most peakoilers on this site have been introduced to the logistic curve through the famous prediction of King Hubbert on the Lower-48 production. Fewer maybe knows that curve fitting techniques have been extensively applied by people that we may qualify as cornucopians. Ironically, the logistic curve is also used as a prediction tool for market share and technology substitution.
A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization
A quick post about a different manipulation of the logistic differential equation. By using the first derivative, we get a new way to perform the Hubbert linearization. Some results are given on Norway and the US oil production.
Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law
Norway can be considered as the poster child of the Hubbert curve modeling approach with a production profile that is remarkably close to the logistic curve.
Read more posts by Samuel Foucher
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Nicole Foss

Entropy and Empire This article is a discussion of the rise and fall of empire (in thermodynamic terms) and the process of imperial succession.
The Resurgence of Risk Resurgence of Risk is a description of the developing credit crunch from its inception - an explanation of how we arrived at this financial crisis and where we are headed.
Smart Metering and Smarter Metering Electricity metering is a significant means of addressing excess demand, but the high-tech metering solutions being proposed miss many opportunities because they pay no attention to psychological drivers.
A MacKenzie Valley Pipedream? This piece assesses the prospects for the construction of a MacKenzie Valley pipeline through the Canadian north.
Anaerobic Digestion in Ontario - A Regulatory Obstacle Course Renewable energy technologies wishing to connect to the grid face significant regulatory obstacles that add so much to project costs that project viability is threatened.
Read more posts by Nicole Foss
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Big Gav

Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power
While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out.
Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans
A post examining the use of artificial islands to collect wind, wave, ocean current and solar power in the tropics, along with a more unusual energy source - harnessing the difference in water temperatures between the warm surface and the cold depths using a technique called OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).
Geothermal Energy: Geothermia
Crossposted from my blog Peak Energy as the subject of geothermal power has cropped up in the comments a few times lately.
Floating Offshore Wind Power
An update on a post I did last year on the potential for floating offshore wind power, which looked at a number of different prototypes at various stages of development.
The Limits To Scenario Planning
A review of some common misconceptions about the Limits to Growth book.
Iraq's Oil: The Greatest Prize Of All
In this post I'll outline why I believe that Iraq probably has the world's largest oil reserves - or, as Daniel Yergin once said of the middle east, it is "the greatest single prize in all history".
Natural Gas In Australia - How Long Will It Last?
In this post I have a look at how much gas Australia has and how long it will last under a variety of scenarios.
Coal Seam Gas In Australia
In this post I look at recent events in the gas industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future.
The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum
A comprehensive review of the issues involved in the "hydrogen economy".
Hubbert: King Of The Technocrats
In this post I explore the Technocracy movement and Hubbert's role in it.
Locabucks: Are local currencies a way to escape the liquidity trap?
I look at the concept of local currencies (or "locabucks" as I'm now dubbing them), an idea which has its roots in the Great Depression as a mechanism for escaping the liquidity trap - and thus might be relevant again in the not-too distant future if present trends continue.
Terra Preta: Biochar and the MEGO Effect
In this post I have a look at modern day techniques to produce terra preta (often called biochar or agrichar) which have the potential to increase soil fertility, generate energy and sequester carbon all at the same time.
Buckminster Fuller's Critical Path
A review of Buckminster Fuller's last work, Critical Path.
Is It Time For a 4 Day Working Week?
In this post I look at various proposals to reduce the amount of time we spend at work, as a way of addressing energy, environmental and other issues facing us.
Peak Oil And The Tea Party Movement
In this post I have a look at the boost this (peak oil) is likely to give to populist politics and some of the possibilities for addressing this.
Read more posts by Big Gav
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Prof. Goose

A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It)
This post updates Stuart's post about this two years ago (and yes, it's still a graph that will blow you away!) with two more years of USGS cement data, 2006 and 2007.
From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum
Lately, I have been thinking a lot about the direction of The Oil Drum. Much of my thinking on this set of ideas has been brought about by some soul-searching, trying to understand the problems we face as a community, and then figuring out how to "positively push the future."
Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme
What insights can we claim from psychology to get those we care about, and even those we don't, to dig deeper to get to an understanding of the pillars of the problems we face, instead of trying to buy aluminum siding for a house slowly falling in on itself?
Will Canada Fuel Fortress America?
Will Canada complacently allow the US to pillage her resources as energy supplies become more scarce?
Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions
I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term.
Was That Really Five Years?
A summary and some thoughts about the fifth year of the Oil Drum's existence.
The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today
Read more posts by Prof. Goose (Real name, Kyle Saunders)
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Nate Hagens

The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Consumption A (longish) exploration of how our evolved neural wetware predisposes us to compete for status and also allows us to be hijacked by novelty items/activities, many of which use alot of energy.
A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important? A story about how energy return on investment impacts an imaginary society of Sasquatches - highlighting the importance of biohpysical metrics for a civilization.
Peak Oil: A View from Planet Talos An alien perspective on the resource depletion/human nature intersection.
Living for the Moment While Devaluing the Future An examination of why we have evolved mechanisms to steeply favor the present over the future and why this is relevant to questions of resource depletion and environmental problems.
Peak Oil - Whom to Believe CERAiously-Part 1 Highlights of the main differences between the energy cornucopians and those predicting a near term peak in oil production.
Peak Oil - Why Smart Folks Disagree Part 2 More detail on the above post on supply side differences between energy optimists and realists.
Peak Oil - Believe it or Not - Part 3 An overview of human cognitive biases that contribute to disagreement on resource depletion/climate change.
Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhh Yes! An look at decreasing returns to more consumtion.
Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight - An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood Measuring the scale of US standing forest relative to US fossil fuel use for heat.
".......Dammit - We Wasted a Day of Sunlight"
Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock
Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil Soros theory of reflexivity, in light of oil depletion.
Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets An overview of volatility and the small size of energy markets relative to financial capital.
The 2008 IEA WEO Review (#1 in a Series) The first in a series examining the claims of the IEA annual energy report.
Advice to Obama (#2) Yes We Can But Will We? A letter to the new President, outlining biophysical (supply) and evolutionary (demand) type thinking.
Campfire
What Do We Tell Our Children A letter I wrote to an 8 year old boy who asked about oil running out.
I Don't Know A short piece looking at why we are so confident, even when we know very little.
I Dream of GINI - Wealth Inequality During Resource Depletion
Peak Oil, Peak Credit and Investments - So What the Hell Does One Do? An initial pass at rewriting the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumptions
Whither The Oil Drum? An introspection on the purpose of sites like this, when the meme of peak oil has been generally accepted.
Enter the Elephant A look at why facts matter very little in changing peoples behavior.
2010: The Year for Making ContactNew Years resolutions for myself, in light of current conditions.
Dear Candidate-What Will You Do if Growth is Over?
Read more posts by Nate Hagens
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Phil Hart

Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle
I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).
International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
In World Energy Outlook 2009, the International Energy Agency seems to have dropped a bombshell that has been quietly (and politely) ignored.
The Economics of Volatile Oil Prices
Considering the fundamental nature of oil supply and demand provides a coherent explanation not just for the rapid rise in oil prices, but also the dramatic fall.
The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources
Despite significant changes, the 2008 IEA report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries.
Oil, House Prices, Credit? Three parts of the same story
The long forgotten 'oil crisis' of just a few months ago has been replaced by a full blown 'credit crisis' - related events that represent the unravelling of half a century of unsustainable trends in oil consumption and debt.
High-Tech Hitchhiking
Could a hitchhiking scheme for the iPhone era work in practice and change attitudes to hitching a ride?
How Technology Increases Oil Production
How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production.
Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows
In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries.
Read more posts by Phil Hart
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Rembrandt Koppelaar

Carbon Capture and Storage: Economic Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
A primer on reserve growth part 1
What is reserve growth and why it is so difficult to measure?
A primer on reserve growth part 2
A summary of various reserve growth studies.
A primer on reserve growth part 3
A discussion on the reserve growth figures in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%?
A summary of the USGS 2009 reserve assessment of the largest U.S. coal field, Gilette in Wyoming.
Read more posts by Rembrandt Koppelaar
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Rune Likvern

Europe and Natural Gas - Are Tough Choices Ahead?
In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply.
Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports
In this post I briefly present the results from my analysis of absolute and relative trends in world oil (all liquids) supply, consumption, net exports and net imports between 1980 and 2009.
Has OECD oil consumption peaked?
I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold.
IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue?
In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030.
Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within EU Peaked?
As this post will show the likelihood that the EU’s fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007.
Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter
This post presents the development of the energy mix for the UK, and how the UK in less than a decade went from being a substantial energy exporter to a substantial net energy importer.
Read more posts by Rune Likvern
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Euan Mearns

Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?
Back in 2005 the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) forecast 2.84 mbpd oil production in Norway during 2009. I pointed out their forecast was rather optimistic. 2.3 mbpd was what actually came to pass. The NPD were 23% too high.
The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models
This post, written in November 2006 provided a forecast for UK oil production employing bottom up and top down methodology. My forecast for UK oil production in 2009 was 1.53 mbpd. 1.45 mbpd was what actually came to pass. I was 6% too high.
Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production
With Cantarell in free fall, this post tried to take a more holistic view of Mexican oil production, pointing out that nitrogen once destined for Cantarell would now be diverted and injected into neighboring Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex.
Saudi production laid bare
This post was written to counter Stuart Staniford who claimed "Oil production peaked in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Recent sharp declines in production are involuntary and Saudi Arabia has switched from swing producer to supply constrained producer."
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology)
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results)
Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1)
Estimates of the remaining reserves and future production in Ghawar, the worlds largest oil field, based on data gleaned from the internet by a host of eager bloggers.
Crisis, what energy crisis?
An overview of the best posts from the 12 months preceding July 2007.
UK Energy Security
A look at possible impacts of UK oil and gas production decline together with a range of appropriate energy policy responses.
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates
An oil production forecast for Saudi Arabia using both bottom up and top down (Hubbert linearisation) techniques. Peak was forecast to be 2011.
The European Gas Market
A comprehensive look at where Europe gets its natural gas from (34 charts and maps) including forecasts that incorporate peak Norwegian gas production and decline of the supergiant gas field at Groningen in Holland.
Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?
A follow up to the European Gas market incorporating a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by Rune Likvern.
Why oil costs over $120 per barrel
An examination of some of the fundamental causes of the run in oil prices that took place in 2008.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil
An overview of North Sea oil production decline and its role in the oil price run of 2008.
A State of Emergency
An examination of the plunge in UK oil and gas production and its impact on the UK economy ahead of the 2008 crash.
The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy
The slides I presented at a talk to the Royal Society of Chemists in Aberdeen, November 2008.
The energy efficiency of energy procurement systems
An overview of the energy return on a number of energy procurement systems together with a look at contradictory policies being pursued by OECD governments.
The energy efficiency of cars
A simple look at the energy efficiency of various vehicle propulsion systems including all electric, internal combustion, fuel cells and bio fuel.
The financial return on energy invested
An experimental examination of links between energy production, consumption, prices and GDP.
The Chinese Coal Monster
An examination of the phenomenal growth in Chinese coal production and consumption. How long can this go on?
Read more posts by Euan Mearns
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David Murphy

EROI, Insidious Feedbacks, and the End of Economic Growth
In this post I attempt to answer the following question: Is a return to long term economic growth possible?
The True Value of Energy is the Net Energy
"The true value of energy to society is the net energy, which is that after the energy costs of getting and concentrating that energy are subtracted.” - H.T. Odum (1973)
Energy Transitions and the Next Paradigmatic Image of the World
The most important question is “what is the next paradigmatic image of the world?”
The Net Hubbert Curve, what does it mean?
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930’s to 30:1 in the 1970’s to roughly 11:1 as of 2000. What does this mean?
Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the US economy
Gail, Jeff Rubin, and now James Hamilton of the University of California – San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions.
The Energy Return on Investment Threshold Due to the asymptotic nature of the curve at high EROIs, extraction/conversion processes with EROIs below 8 result in vastly different flows of net energy than those with higher EROIs.
Read more posts by David Murphy
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Heading Out

Heading Out has written a long series of articles under the title of Tech Talks, running on Sundays. These recently deal with oil and gas resource availability in various parts of the world. Earlier, the articles dealt with techniques for extraction of oil and gas. After the Deepwater Horizon blow out, he wrote a series of articles dealing with the approaches to sealing the well.
Link to a listing of posts by Heading Out. (Real name, Dave Summers)
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Jérôme à Paris

Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence
I wrote the text below in late December 2005, i.e. just before the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, which had been simmering for a few weeks, blew open into the consciousness of the West.
New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs
A post refuting some assertions about the new Iraqi oil law, which will allow foreign companies to invest in the oil sector via PSAs (production sharing agreements).
A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energy
A review of the pros and cons of the nuclear industry.
How To Get A Pipeline Built
A primer on why and how pipelines get built - which essentially means how they get financed.
Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease
Oil has played a fascinating side role in my Anglo Disease series, allowing the debt bubble to go on for much longer than expected. But now, instead, it is accelerating the crash. Let me take you through the whole cycle.
Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!)
A post about the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago which is now up and running.
Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation
There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few.
The cost of wind, the price of wind, the value of wind
In this post I try to clear some of the confusion that surrounds the economics of wind power, as this is an issue that is often used by the opponents of wind to dismiss it.
Read more posts by Jérôme à Paris
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Engineer-Poet

Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy.
If we are going to use biofuels, we need to re-think everything involved with them; the results may not look like anything we've ever seen.
One engineer's advice for energy policy.
An open letter to Obama on the path the country should take.
H2CAR: Another blind alley
We can make enough biofuel to replace oil, but at a price we cannot pay; this is NOT a solution.
The Cogeneration Stopgap
Generating electricity along with heat can stretch fuel supplies and bridge to the future.
Energetics of cultivation: draft animals vs. combustion engines and the Haber process
Tractors are more efficient than horses, and we don't have to breed or train them.
Analysis of the Hon. John Dingell's carbon-tax proposal
Talking back to a Washington insider who kept Detroit in the gas-guzzler business, who I voted against when my city became part of his district, yet who is making some sense.
EPA economy ratings vs. the GM Volt: A square peg in a round hole
Ruminations on why MPG loses its relevance in a world of watt-hours per mile.
Photovoltaics: From Waste to Energy-maker
How the dumps of phosphate mining can yield the material to power much of the world.
Weathering the storm: making it through a natural-gas crisis.
Lifestyle changes which may slash fuel demand by changing habits.
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Robert Rapier

We Won't Stop Global Warming
I lay out the case that there isn’t really much we will do to stop the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?
Debunking the use of the Hubbert Linearization as a tool for the prediction of peak oil.
Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions
An interview I did at that 2010 Global Footprint Network conference that discusses peak oil.
What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?
A thought experiment to see what people might really do in cases of extreme gasoline constraints.
A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons’ Claims on the Deepwater Spill
Debunking hyperbolic comments related to the deepwater spill.
The Switch to Winter Gasoline and a Primer on Gasoline Blends
Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline. So what does this mean, and why does it make gasoline less expensive?
The Price of Energy
Just looking at the cost per BTU of many different energy sources. Sparking some interesting discussion.
The Case for Higher Gas Taxes (and Lower Income Taxes)
I make my case for why it would make sense to shift taxes from income to consumption of fossil fuels.
Ethanol Blend E85 Case Study: Iowa
Examines the question of why Iowa should use their own ethanol instead of exporting it.
The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture
Seeking to explain why I think peak oil consequences would start to happen before peak oil.
Refining 201: The Assay Essay
Explaining what products are produced from crude oil, and how that relates to the assay of the crude.
Why Not Nuclear Power?
Exploring the case for expanded nuclear power.
The Future is Solar
Why I think solar power has to play a more important role in the future.
Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification
Just explaining the difference in the two technologies that have seen the borderlines between them blurred.
German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis
A translation of major points from the Bundeswehr report.
Read more posts by Robert Rapier
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Luis de Sousa

World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined as the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries.
World Oil Exports [00] Introduction
A 2008 update on the original 2006 assessment.
World Oil Exports [01] Angola
The next post in the series focussing specifically on Angola's oil reserves.
World Oil Exports [02] Libya
Same as above except Libya this time.
A New Energy Policy for Europe
Wednesday the European Commission released a series of Communications proposing a new revolutionary Energy Policy attempting to address EU’s energy challenges for the XXI century. This is a set of first comments to such proposals.
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
Some reflections follow regarding Dr. Jackson’s arguments and understanding of the Hubbert’s Peak.
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane
A dive into the fascinating history of a plant that shaped the World.
Marchetti's Curves
This is a brief account of the Energy Substitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA.
A few more thoughts on Saudi and HL
There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models.
Olduvai revisited 2008
This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge.
IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
An assessment of the WEO climate change statistics, co-authored with Euan Mearns.
Energy Policy: SER-2
This log entry is the first of a series that will try to build a critical but constructive review of this crucial element of future Energy Policy in Europe.
SER-2 [02] Memo on the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
In the second installment of this series analysing the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2) by the European Commission, the focus is on to the Memo entitled “EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan”.
SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice.
Planning for Europe's Energy Future: My Submission to the Commission's 2010 Consultation on Energy
This document is a response to the Energy Consultation launched by the European Commission in the first half of 2010. This consultation is part of a process that shall take the Commission to a new Energy Policy Programme a few years from now.
Interview with Jean Laherrère
Some comments on the general Fossil Fuels depletion picture and our future beyond them.
Read more posts by Luis de Sousa
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Stuart Staniford

4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares? A very early piece pointing out that the post-peak decline rate is really the critical variable in assessing the seriousness of peak oil - much more important than the date or height of peak, or the degree of warning of peak. This piece still seems pretty good to me.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze. The first piece I wrote looking at the evidence that the post peak decline rate will probably be slow, rather than rapid.
The Auto Efficiency Wedge A piece looking at the fact that at slow decline rates, it's reasonably forseeable that peak oil can be handled by ongoing efficiency improvements (not painlessly, but without complete disaster)
Depletion Levels in Ghawar A major forensic analysis of the state of oil depletion in the Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi official oil reserve figures are over-optimistic.
US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch Rather prescient piece from 2007 discussing the possibility that the credit crunch could collapse oil prices and slow adaptation to peak oil. This turned out to be pretty much what happened.
Fermenting the Food Supply An argument against continued growth in biofuel consumption as an alternative to oil, on the grounds that the implications for food prices are likely to be very problematic.
The Fallacy of Reversibility This piece argued that there is no evidence for the idea that peak oil will lead to a revival of local non-industrial agriculture. The reverse seems more likely - that industrial agriculture is being and will be strengthened by high oil prices.
Powering Civilization to 2050 The first of three posts laying out a scenario for how we could get to a fairly close to carbon neutral civilization by 2050, without major collapse or disaster (if I was in charge in of the world). This post looked at energy, and argued that extrapolating the learning curve of solar power, it was possible to see energy becoming cheap again by 2050, based primarily on solar.
Four Billion Cars in 2050? Second of the "2050" series: Guesstimates on how many cars there might be by 2050, and how they might be powered.
Food to 2050 The third in the "2050" series: Whether there are likely to be limitations on feeding the world's population to 2050 in a cautiously optimistic scenario.
Read more posts by Stuart Staniford
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Jeff Vail

Theory of Geopolitical Disruptions to Oil Supply
Discusses several non-geological feedback loops that may have a dramatic impact on the course of resource depletion.
Mexico, A Nation-State Dissolves
Addresses the geopolitical instability in Mexico as a potential bellwether for the Nation-State structure generally, and its potential impact on oil production and exports.
The Problem of Growth
How the fundamental structure of our civilization demands perpetual growth and is therefore inherently unsustainable, as well as potential structural solutions.
Oil Demand Destruction and Brittle Systems
Argues that demand destruction tends to make remaining demand less elastic, and therefore makes systems more brittle and vulnerable to future supply shocks.
Predator-Prey Dynamics in Oil Prices
Argues that oil demand, supply, and prices can be modeled similar to predator-prey systems in nature.
A series of posts on the potential for suburbia post-peak.
A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting
A Resilient Suburbia? 3: Weighing the Potential for Self-Sufficiency
A Resilient Suburbia 4: Accounting for the Value of Decentralization
The Renewables Gap
Discussion of the challenges of a societal transition to renewable sources of energy, and especially the "gap" between the beginning of massive investment and the beginning of significant levels of renewable energy generation.
Read more posts by Jeff Vail
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Chris Vernon

Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil?
A look at Lester Brown's call for wartime mobilisation.
Nuclear Britain
Reviews the history and future of civilian nuclear power in Britain.
Climate Change – an alternative approach
Rather than attempting to reduce emissions be reducing demand, can the same be achieved by limiting fossil fuel production?
Jonathon Porritt: Peak Oil and Climate Change
Prominent environmentalist brings together these two issues.
Goodbye Helium, Goodbye Brainscans
Non-Renewable resource scarcity, the case of Helium.
Read more posts by Chris Vernon
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Some Notable Guest Posts

Cutler Cleveland - Energy Transitions Past and Future
Herman Daly: Towards a Steady State Economy
Herman Daly on the Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Jay Hanson: America 2.0
Walter Youngquist: Unique Times -- and the Future
Christopher Smith: Aviation and Oil Depletion
Nick Rouse: Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil?
Dave Pollard: It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important
Lester R. Brown: The Oil Intensity of Food
Alan Drake: Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads
Debbie Cook: How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?
Aaron Newton: The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come
Glenn Morton: Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
Michael Vickerman: A federal energy policy: can it happen here?
Brad Lancaster - Eight Principles of Successful Rainwater Harvesting
Dave Rutledge: The Coal Question and Climate Change
Jeffrey J. Brown: The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
Jean Laherrère: Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates
Jean Laherrère: Hydrates updated
Jean Laherrère: Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
Jean Laherrère: Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
Sterling Smith: Energy Vision 2050
Douglas B. Reynolds: Peak oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union: Lessons on the 20th Anniversary of the Collapse
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This list isn't exhaustive nor final but what the authors sent in (and we are still missing a few authors).

Threat to economy could force IEA to release oil

(Reuters) - Political leaders in the United States and Europe could soon face an uncomfortable choice between raising the pressure on Iran further or taking steps to safeguard their economies from the damage wrought by rising oil prices.

Confrontation with Iran and a series of supply disruptions in South Sudan, Syria and Yemen have pushed prices back to levels that derailed the recovery in the United States and Europe last year, and could do again in the first half of 2012.

If prices continue rising, releasing oil from government-controlled stockpiles will look attractive to policymakers keen to maintain the embargo but anxious to avoid a stalling economy in a U.S. election year.

Crude Oil Falls From Nine-Month High on Signs of Slowdown in Europe, China

Oil fell from a nine-month high as signs of slowing demand in Europe and China countered concern that a conflict between Iran and Western nations may escalate and disrupt supplies from the Persian Gulf producer.

Futures slipped as much as 0.6 percent in New York after an index based on a survey of euro-region purchasing managers unexpectedly declined, signaling a contraction. Manufacturing in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, may shrink for a fourth month. Oil rose earlier after United Nations inspectors in Iran said they were denied access to a suspected nuclear- related military base.

With gasoline consumption trending down, motorists wonder why price keeps rising

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — As the average price of gasoline zips toward $4 a gallon in California and past $3.50 nationwide, increasingly frustrated motorists are asking questions.

Among the most vexing: If we're using less gas, how come prices keep going up?

Since January 2010, California Board of Equalization statistics show year-over-year gas use statewide generally declining by 0.1 percent to 4 percent each month. National gas use has also been down or flat.

Some U.S. refineries have even begun exporting their fuel abroad.

Yet the average price of a gallon of gas in Sacramento is $3.93, the highest ever for the month of February, when prices are typically lower than they are at their summer peak.

Higher oil likely to help Gulf petrochemical makers

Higher oil prices will boost Gulf producers' margins as their Asian counterparts, which base their production on crude-based naphtha, are forced to raise prices. This enables Gulf players also to sell their products at higher prices, so boosting their margins.

UK forward gas price hits 2012 high, prompt strong

London (Reuters) - British gas for summer delivery reached highs not seen since December 2011, supported by strong oil prices, while near-term contracts also made gains due to reduced supplies of stored gas.

The benchmark summer 2012 gas contract rose one pence to 58.70 pence per therm, its highest level since the first half of December.

GOP's latest anti-Obama weapon: Gas prices

In addition to paying more at the pump, motorists will be hearing a lot about higher gas prices in the political world.

The prospect of $4-a-gallon gas nationwide is giving Republicans a new issue to whack President Obama this election season.

The GOP’s disconnect on gas prices

Gas prices are driven by: 1.) geo-political forces, exaggerated by an active futures market. Day-to-day supply and demand are secondary to speculation about what might happen to supply given the latest in Iran, Venezuela or Mexico; 2.) a falling U.S. dollar; and 3.) the market’s conclusion that “peak oil” has arrived with the coming on line of India’s and China’s automobile ownership.

To further demonstrate the disconnect between traditional laws of supply and demand when it comes to gas prices, consumption in the United States is down and production is at a six-year high.

Fact-checking Newt Gingrich on gas prices

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich appeared on CBS This Morning today, where host Charlie Rose asked if he truly believes President Obama wants to see the price of gas increase, as Gingrich has repeatedly indicated.

"Of course, he does. Come on, Charlie," the former House speaker responded. "You know that. He has said it himself."

Gingrich is wrong on both gun racks in Chevy Volts and US energy policy

During a campaign sweep through Georgia last weekend, Newt Gingrich had some interesting things to say about the ability of a Chevy Volt to carry a gun rack, and his fantasy of returning to $2.50 a gallon gasoline.

One in four Americans has more debt than savings

Consumers are doing better when it comes to living within their means, said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s senior financial analyst. But, he added, years of stagnant wage growth, high unemployment, declining home values and escalating household expenses have strained wallets. “Even though there’s been progress things are still out of whack,” he said.

And the economic pictures may get even gloomier for consumers if gas prices continue to escalate, he pointed out. Last year, he said, “60 percent of Americans said they cut back on discretionary spending because of gasoline prices.”

Cabot Joins Williams to Move Marcellus Gas to New York

Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. (COG) and Williams Partners LP (WPZ) will join forces on a new pipeline to move at least 500 million cubic feet of natural gas a day from Pennsylvania to higher-priced markets in New York and New England.

How To Play Peak Cheap Oil: Looking For Yield And Growth In The Canadian Oil Sands

If you are like me and you were always skeptical of the peak oil theory, you are feeling pretty smug right now. New technologies and new oil discoveries are being made daily and politicians are once again musing about America becoming energy independent. You never even hear the phrase "peak oil" anymore unless it is from some jerk like me enjoying a self-satisfied pat on the back for being right.

However, I am becoming a believer in peak oil theory's little cousin: peak cheap oil. Or peak conventional oil, if you prefer. Whatever you call it, it is undeniable that the face of oil production is changing. Conventional oil deposits are shrinking, as are margins at the oil majors. Oil exploration is becoming more expensive and most new oil reserves are coming from deep horizontal wells, hydraulic fracturing and deep-sea drilling.

Kurt Cobb: How you can tell that the peak oil debate is (almost) over

Protestations in the mainstream media that we need not worry about a peak in the rate of world oil production anytime soon are suddenly coming fast and furious. As a result, I was reminded both of Shakespeare and Gandhi.

"The media doth protest too much," I thought (with apologies to Queen Gertrude in Hamlet). As for Gandhi, a quote commonly attributed to him may shed light on where we are in the peak oil debate: "First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they attack you. Then you win."

Chevron Pumps Billions Into Kazakhstan For Barrels Of Sour Crude

Chevron Corp.’s Kazakhstan venture will seek to spend between $5 and $6 billion to sustain output in the country’s prolific Tengiz oil field.

The budgeted amount will be used to drill wells in the region over the next five years through the TengizChevroil LLP venture.

Oil producer Apache to spend $1bn in Egypt

Egypt's oil and gas sector is to benefit from US$1 billion (Dh3.67bn) of investment as the nation tries to rebuild its economy after the revolution.

The US oil producer Apache has agreed to spend that sum developing Egyptian hydrocarbons over the next two years - as much as it has spent on exploration in Egypt in the previous decade.

Egypt: Time for a green constitution

Religion, class, faith, culture and gender will all play some part in shaping this new document – but will the environment gain fair representation?

Waleed Mansour is an Egyptian environmentalist – and below is his take on the key message he would like to see those legislators take forward.

In Egypt, hopes of a true revolution fade

A year after the revolution, many Egyptians — already suffering under the weight of a wretched economy — see an undemocratic society where the military and Islamic ideologues are hoarding power while changing nothing. Though some are pleased that a form of law shaped by the Quran is coming to Egypt, others wonder whether they have swapped one corrupt and suppressing dictatorship for another.

IAEA Departs Iran After Talks Yield No ‘Way Forward’

Officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency, sent to Iran to defuse tensions over the country’s nuclear program, were denied access to a military base and said the talks “couldn’t finalize a way forward.”

The IAEA inspectors were refused permission to visit the Parchin base during two days of meetings that ended yesterday. Iran’s ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, told state television that officials discussed grounds for cooperation and further talks will be held. He didn’t elaborate.

Iran ‘could lift France, UK oil ban’

Iran has said it may lift its ban on oil exports to France and the UK on the day UN nuclear weapons inspectors were reportedly blocked from visiting one military site.

Don't Expect Asia to Join the Iran Oil Embargo

China and Russia, of course, are obstructive and self-interested in all this, and other countries aspiring to new global roles prefer to hunker down than to choose sides.

But the real failure of US-EU diplomacy is in Asia. Taken together, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan account for about 38 percent of all Iranian export purchases. (Add China and the figure is 60 percent, but that’s a non-starter).

India BPCL plans shift from Iran to Saudi oil -sources

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India's Bharat Petroleum has turned to Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, for higher supplies in 2012/13, fearing global sanctions may jeopardise trade with Iran, industry sources said on Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia is the biggest oil supplier to India, the world's fourth-biggest oil consumer, and is the only oil producer with significant spare capacity to replace any fall in supply from its regional rival Iran.

Indonesia President: Need To Revise Growth, Oil Price Forecasts After Iran Sanctions

JAKARTA – Indonesia needs to revise its economic growth and oil price forecasts in the state budget due to the global economic slowdown and after some developed nations slapped sanctions on major oil producer Iran, the country's president said Wednesday.

Oil firms plan for Mideast turmoil

BEIJING - China's biggest oil companies are learning how to alleviate the risks resulting from the uncertain geopolitical scenarios in the Middle East and North Africa.

One of their latest moves is a plan to assemble equipment in Dubai in the United Arabic Emirates. The regional business hub will act as a halfway house on the road to the turbulent areas.

Congressman: Iraq War's end gives al-Qaeda opening in Syria

WASHINGTON – The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq has hurt the United States' ability to blunt efforts by al-Qaeda militants to extend their reach into neighboring Syria, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee said.

Afghan police fire at anti-U.S. rallies; 3 killed

KABUL, Afghanistan – Afghan officials say at least three people have been killed after police opened fire to disperse thousands of anti-American demonstrators rioting for a second day over what the U.S. has said was the inadvertent burning of Muslim holy books at a NATO military base.

Gazprom Accuses Ukraine of Gas Siphoning

Ukraine illegally siphoned off up to 40 million cubic meters of Russian natural gas for Europe over several days this month, Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said on Wednesday.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko said this January that Ukraine was seeking to cut Russian gas imports to 27 billion cu m from 52 bcm. Gazprom reacted then by saying the current contract did not stipulate unilateral changes in gas purchase volumes.

Medvedev Orders Gazprom to Build South Stream with Maximum Capacity

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday instructed Gazprom to build the South Stream gas pipeline intended to carry natural gas to Europe with a maximum annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters.

“What we witnessed at the beginning of the year (severe cold in Europe and Russia) is sufficient ground to instruct Gazprom to focus on the maximum pumping volume of gas through the South Stream gas pipeline construction,” Medvedev said at a meeting with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.

'Find of a lifetime' in Black Sea: OMV

An offshore Black Sea well jointly owned by ExxonMobil and OMV's Romanian arm Petrom has made a potentially significant discovery, according to the Austrian player.

...OMV said the exploration well encountered 70.7 metres of net gas pay, resulting in a preliminary estimate for the accumulation ranging from 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion cubic feet.

Exxon signs Nigeria oil renewals, dispute ends

ABUJA (Reuters) - U.S. energy giant Exxon Mobil signed 20-year oil licence renewals on Nigerian assets producing around 550,000 barrels per day on Wednesday, the company's country manager said, ending months of negotiations.

As wide-ranging energy reforms have been delayed by political wrangling, Nigeria has not renewed several drilling licences that expired as far back as 2008 with foreign oil companies, including Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron .

Nigeria losing 150 000 barrels of oil per day

Abuja - Oil companies in Nigeria are battling against a rising theft that is costing them an estimated 150 000 barrels of crude each day, an oil major official said on Tuesday.

Bonds proposed to recoup W.Va. utility fuel costs

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — Seeking to avoid a one-year rate hike of 30 to 40 percent, Appalachian Power is asking the West Virginia Legislature to allow it to issue bonds instead to recoup energy costs.

The electric utility estimates its costs from steadily rising coal prices tops $350 million, spokeswoman Jeri Matheney said Wednesday. Lower demand attributed to the recession and fragile recovery also is a factor, she said. But the crunch is hitting the utility on the heels of four years of rate increases triggered by a spike in coal prices last decade, Matheney said.

Records Show Confusion in U.S. at Start of Japan’s Atomic Crisis

WASHINGTON — Something resembling a “fog of war” prevailed at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s headquarters in the first hours and days after the Fukushima accident began last March, the N.R.C.’s chairman said Tuesday, as the agency released a cache of transcripts of internal conference calls beginning hours after the earthquake.

Nuclear power entrepreneurs push thorium as a fuel

One year ago, a massive earthquake spawned a tsunami that nearly destroyed Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, further frightening people who had been wary of nuclear power since accidents at Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986.

But a small group of scientists, entrepreneurs and advocates see the post-Fukushima era as the perfect opportunity to get the United States to consider a proposal they have made with no success for years. What about trying a new fuel, they say, and maybe a new kind of reactor?

Spain to extend life of its oldest nuclear plant

Spain will extend operations at its oldest nuclear power plant by five years, Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria said Saturday as the country seeks to make the most of its energy sources.

The decision was immediately slammed as "irresponsible" by environmentalists.

China starts program to beef up nuclear safety, technology for assessing risks

SHANGHAI - China's National Energy Administration plans to beef up safety at nuclear power plants after months of assessments and inspections in the wake of Japan's Fukushima disaster.

The administration said in a statement on its website that 13 research and development projects involving the China National Nuclear Corp. and other state-run companies and research institutions should be completed by 2013.

Government to buy more biobased products

To buoy America's farmers and cut the nation's dependence on oil, President Obama is expected to issue rules today to expand the emerging market for biobased products that are just starting to appear on store shelves with a U.S.-approved label.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Technology Update

While waiting to see how the latest settlement of the EU's debt crisis or any of the ongoing Middle East confrontations turn out, it seems like a good time to review a few of the hundreds of announcements of new energy technology that have made in the last few months.

'Artificial leaf' eyed as holy grail in energy research

Turbo-charging photosynthesis -- by which plants and bacteria turn sunlight into food and energy -- in an "artificial leaf" could yield a vast commercial power source, scientists said.

Europe’s Top Solar Subsidy Lifts Ukraine as Growth Slows in West

Solar-power capacity in Ukraine is forecast to double this year, spurred by the completion of Europe’s biggest photovoltaic plant in December and incentives a third higher than anywhere else in the region.

Developers in the former Soviet republic may add panels with 300 megawatts of capacity after last year installing about 200 megawatts, according to the Association of Alternative Fuels and Energy Market Participants, the main lobby group tracking PV installations in the nation. It had just 2.5 megawatts in 2010.

Scotland Vies With England for $52 Billion Offshore-Wind Future

Scotland and England, haggling over the possible breakup of the U.K., are competing to create a hub for the country’s $52 billion offshore wind industry.

Vt. won't make renewable energy goals

MONTPELIER, Vt. (AP) — Two key state lawmakers said Tuesday that Vermont won't meet its goal of getting 20 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2017, and they're withdrawing their support for setting a new goal of 30 percent renewable power by 2025.

Two key battery car start-ups race to prove critics wrong

A new lawsuit targeting California car- and battery-maker Fisker Automotive is the latest potential setback for the once-promising company, one of several high-tech start-ups to receive millions of dollars in assistance under a Department of Energy loan program meant to promote the development of high-mileage technologies.

The legal wrangle with investor Daniel Wray underscores the problems Fisker is facing as it struggles to line up alternative funding if the DoE pulls the plug. The loan is critical to develop a second line of Fisker products aimed at the emerging market for battery-powered automobiles.

New Enzyme Could Cut Cost of Ethanol Made From Waste

It is one of the holy grails of clean energy production: finding a way to make ethanol from the cellulose in biowaste like corn husks and household trash. Although several pilot projects are up and running — with many more in the pipeline — commercial production has remained elusive, with the costs remaining much higher than for producing ethanol from corn, or gasoline.

But in what may come as welcome news to oil companies that are paying penalties for failing to use cellulosic ethanol — a biofuel that, commercially speaking, does not yet exist — a big producer of industrial enzymes has developed an enzyme that can help wring more ethanol out of cellulose at a lower cost.

The Quest for ‘Hydricity’

In the 1980s and ’90s, hydrogen fuel cell technology seemed like a strong candidate for use in cars and stationary applications, converting hydrogen to electricity with no emissions beyond a puff of antiseptic water vapor.

Geoffrey Ballard, founder of Ballard Power Systems, coined a term to describe the new system, “hydricity,” a fusion of hydrogen and electricity. Surplus electricity could be used to split water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen, with the hydrogen stored for reconversion into electricity.

Twelve Principles for Sustainable Business

There is much talk of business needing to become more sustainable, in the face of an increasing number of challenges, such as climate change, peak oil, new legislation, repetitional risk, and increasing costs. That companies need to change is no longer the debate, but there is a need to understand (in easy terms) what businesses could be doing and how this action will deliver sustainable business success, as well as helping to save the planet.

The Way is Shut

When I first approached the topic of societal energy in 2004, I became aware for the first time that our energy future was not in the bag, and proceeded to explore alternative after alternative to judge the viability and potential pitfalls of various options. I have retraced my steps in Do the Math posts, exposing the scales at which different energy sources might contribute, and the practical complexities involved. My spooky campfire version of the story, a la Tolkien: The Way is Shut.

Texas agency likely to cut water to rice farms

LISSIE, Texas (AP) — Five generations of Ronald Gertson's family have tilled the claylike soil of southeast Texas to grow rice, confident that no matter how fickle Mother Nature was, there would be one constant: water to irrigate their crop.

Until now.

For the first time since Gertson's great-grandfather made his way from Denmark through Kansas to the flat, coastal area south of Houston, his family faces the likelihood officials won't release water from two Austin-area lakes into the rivers and canals they use for irrigation.

Our unrealistic attitudes about death, through a doctor’s eyes

For all its technological sophistication and hefty price tag, modern medicine may be doing more to complicate the end of life than to prolong or improve it. If a person living in 1900 managed to survive childhood and childbearing, she had a good chance of growing old. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a person who made it to 65 in 1900 could expect to live an average of 12 more years; if she made it to 85, she could expect to go another four years. In 2007, a 65-year-old American could expect to live, on average, another 19 years; if he made it to 85, he could expect to go another six years.

Another factor in our denial of death has more to do with changing demographics than advances in medical science. Our nation’s mass exodus away from the land and an agricultural existence and toward a more urban lifestyle means that we’ve antiseptically left death and the natural world behind us. At the beginning of the Civil War, 80 percent of Americans lived in rural areas and 20 percent lived in urban ones. By 1920, with the Industrial Revolution in full swing, the ratio was around 50-50; as of 2010, 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas.

How monkeys handle moral outrage

The bottom line from de Waal's talk is that a sense of fairness, outrage over moral equality and the ability to reconcile and cooperate are not uniquely human behaviors. Rather, such sensibilities were hard-wired into brains long before the rise of the human species. This is reflected in neuroscience as well, de Waal said. "Very ancient parts of the brain are involved in moral decision making," he observed.

Science overturns view of humans as naturally 'nasty'

But he told reporters that research also shows animals bestow their empathy on animals they are familiar with in their "in-group" -- and that natural tendency is a challenge in a globalized human world.

"Morality" developed in humans in small communities, he said, adding: "It's a challenge... it's experimental for the human species to apply a system intended for (in-groups) to the whole world."

When a Country Cracks Down on Contraception: Grim Lessons from the Philippines

Over the past few decades, as most of the world has embraced family planning, the majority-Catholic nation has waged war on reproductive rights. There, abortion is strictly prohibited and crackdowns on contraception are common. Church officials promote what they call “natural” family planning: women are advised to track their cycle and abstain from sex on all but their least fertile days. They cast “artificial” contraception as an affront to God’s will, a gateway to abortion and a threat to public health. In their minds, condoms are “abortifacients” and family-planning campaigners are, as Archbishop Paciano Aniceto told me in 2008, “propagandists of a culture death.”

This type of thinking has led several jurisdictions to try to curb the use of modern contraception. For much of the past decade, for instance, the city of Manila kept birth control from city-funded clinics. The architects of the plan told me that it was designed to discourage promiscuity and, as much as possible, keep public funds away from private vice. The evidence suggests the bill did little to promote abstinence (what Aniceto called “self-mastery”) and did much to hurt women’s health. A report by the Center for Reproductive Rights documented a relative rise in maternal mortality, a slew of unwanted pregnancies and evidence of injury caused by clandestine abortions.

Raw milk causes most illnesses from dairy, study finds

Unpasteurized milk, touted as the ultimate health food by some, is 150 times more likely to cause food-borne illness outbreaks than pasteurized milk, and such outbreaks had a hospitalization rate 13 times higher than those involving pasteurized dairy products, a study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finds.

..."When you consider that no more than 1% of the milk consumed in the United States is raw, it's pretty startling to see that more of the outbreaks were caused by raw milk than pasteurized," says Barbara Mahon, senior author on the paper and deputy director of enteric diseases at CDC.

Demand presents risks to water supplies

"The bulk of the research in recent years has focused on climate change effects on coastal groundwater but increases in water demand could be more important," researcher Grant Ferguson said. "This is particularly true in growing coastal cities and towns where groundwater is often an important water supply."

Why should you care about Canada’s tar sands?

A lot of progress has indeed been made. This is due to high oil prices and lower production costs than in the mid-2000s. It is generally assumed that new oil sand operations require an oil price of $70 per barrel or more to be economically feasible. However, technological advances mean that some existing operations provide a return on investment with oil prices as low as $50 per barrel.

For the last three years, global oil prices have been well in excess of those margins. Brent crude, the global benchmark, stood above $100 per barrel for most of 2011 and is now above $120 following problems with Iran. It is unlikely that prices will drop dramatically in the near to mid-term future. Oil sand projects are likely to remain economically viable for some time to come.

All fossil fuels must be cut to avoid global warming, scientists say

OTTAWA — Two Canadian climate change scientists from the University of Victoria say the public reaction to their recently published commentary has missed their key message: that all forms of fossil fuels, including the oilsands and coal, must be regulated for the world to avoid dangerous global warming.

"Much of the way this has been reported is (through) a type of view that oilsands are good and coal is bad," said climate scientist Neil Swart, who co-authored the study with fellow climatologist Andrew Weaver. "From my perspective, that was not the point. . . . The point here is, we need a rapid transition to renewable (energy), and avoid committing to long-term fossil fuel use if we are to get within the limits (of reducing global warming to less than 2 C)."

Norway faces EU climate measure penalty

The EU will, through a new directive, punish the Norwegian oil industry for efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, says Statoil’s head of environment.

Gleick hurt by ethics lapse over climate papers

The latest national uproar over climate change science has damaged, if not ruined, the reputation of one of the Bay Area's most prominent scholars and raised serious questions about ethics during what has become a roiling political and ideological debate.

Peter Gleick, a MacArthur Foundation fellow and co-founder and president of Oakland's Pacific Institute, admitted Monday that he had posed as someone else and obtained confidential internal papers from the Heartland Institute, a libertarian group that has questioned the reality of human-caused global warming.

The Heartland Affair: A Climate Champion Cheats — and We All Lose

Late last year, Peter Gleick — the president of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security; and a respected expert on water-and-climate issues — co-authored a paper on the American Geophysical Union's (AGU) task force on scientific ethics and integrity. Gleick and his co-author Randy Townsend of the AGU wrote that advancing scientific work to create a sustainable future would only be possible if scientists had the trust of the public and policymakers. And that trust, they added, "is earned by maintaining the highest standards of scientific integrity in all that we do."

Strong words, and true ones too, but Gleick himself has failed to live up to them — and his actions have hurt not just his own professional reputation but the cause of climate science as well.

EU faces multiple trade wars defending green policies

BRUSSELS - EU measures to cut CO2 emissions and improve the climate have sparked outrage in the global aviation industry and most recently in Canada, home to the world’s second largest fossil fuel reserves.

Russian heat wave 'had both manmade and natural causes'

(PhysOrg.com) -- The heat wave that struck western Russia in summer 2010, causing 55,000 deaths, was caused by a combination of manmade and natural factors. However, the frequency of occurrence of such heat waves has increased by a factor of three over recent decades, new research suggests.

Mr Baboon is sitting on a rock scratching for fleas.
Along comes Mr Gazelle.
Morning Mr Baboon.
Top of the Morning Mr Gazelle.
What are you doing Mr Baboon?
Oh, I'm sitting in the sun on top of this rock scratching for fleas and, do you see that lioness under that tree Mr Gazelle?
Yes, I see the lioness under that tree Mr Baboon.
Well Mr Gazelle, when I'm finished with these here fleas, I'm going over to Ms Lioness and I'm going to fuck her.
I do so admire you Mr Baboon.
And Mr Gazelle leaves.

Along comes Mr Warthog.
Morning Mr Baboon.
Top of the Morning Mr Warthog.
What are you doing Mr Baboon?
Oh, I'm sitting in the sun on top of this rock scratching for fleas and, do you see that lioness under that tree Mr Warthog?
Yes, I see the lioness under that tree Mr Baboon.
Well Mr Warthog, when I'm finished with these here fleas, I'm going over to Ms Lioness and I'm going to fuck her.
You are so brave Mr Baboon!
And Mr Warthog leaves.

Along comes Mr Giraffe.
Morning Mr Baboon.
Top of the Morning Mr Giraffe.
What are you doing Mr Baboon?
Oh, I'm sitting in the sun on top of this rock scratching for fleas and, do you see that lioness under that tree Mr Giraffe?
Yes, I see the lioness under that tree Mr Baboon.
Well Mr Giraffe, when I'm finished with these here fleas, I'm going over to Ms Lioness and I'm going to fuck her.
My, my, Mr Baboon!
And Mr Giraffe leaves.

Along comes Mr Lion.
Morning Mr Baboon.
Top of the Morning Mr Lion.
What are you doing Mr Baboon?
Oh, I'm sitting in the sun on top of this rock scratching for fleas and talking shit Mr Lion.

Source: BBC Weather

Sometimes the simplest ideas carry with them, when thought through, such a powerful taste of how the future could be that they are quite irresistible. One such idea has led me to spend the last couple of days immersed in trying to find out as much as I could about it, and it has been time well spent, which I want to share with you here. The idea came in a post on the City Farmers website, entitled ‘Brixton Beer’. The idea is a simple one: rather than breweries in London buying their hops from wherever they can source them (sometimes as far afield as New Zealand), people across London grow hops in their back gardens, on their patios and balconies, allotments and community gardens, which are then used by local brewers. As they put it, “we want to grow hops across a network of individual and community gardens, get local breweries to make beer out of them and drink the result. Simple!” As someone involved in efforts to create a Totnes Community Brewery, the idea held huge promise and intrigue and warranted further exploration.

Brixton Beer

I started my investigations by catching up with Helen Steer from City Farmers. She told me that the idea had first emerged at the AGM of Incredible Edible Lambeth in October 2011, inspired by the ‘Brockwell Bake’ where people grow urban wheat on allotments which is then milled to make local bread. She met with the Independent Brewers Association in London who were very enthusiastic, in fact as she put it “they bit our hands off!” when the idea of their buying and using these locally grown hops was raised.

One of the unexpected side effects they have found is that the idea acts as a great way to get men involved in gardening, a nice antidote to the fact that the majority of people involved in community gardens apparently tend to be women. The plan is to pilot the idea over the 2012 growing season in a number of gardens across London, and to produce a starter pack of rootstock and tools, as well as instructional videos for backyard hop growing. The idea then is to gather the harvest together in September and to brew a beer from the hops, which would then be shared at a harvest party. Longer term plans include the possible launch of a Brixton Brewery. Here is the longer interview I did with Helen (I am trying an approach in this post of mixing audio with writing, and making my research available for you to go into more depth if you’re interested: I hope it works for you):

The idea in practice

This is a wonderful and very attractive idea, especially as a way of making a community brewery truly feel like a community brewery. But is it practical? What are the obstacles such a project might encounter? Well it turns out it’s already being tried in at least one brewery. I spoke to Greg Pilley of the Stroud Brewery, and it turns out he’s been growing hops in his garden (40 plants), as have a number of other people close to the brewery. On one day in September, the hops are harvested, brought to the brewery, and a pale ale called ‘Brewers Garden’ is created which everyone involved then gets 9 pints of when it is ready.

Stroud Brewery describes it thus:

“These hops have been grown by members of our ‘Hop Club’ in their gardens and allotments. The hop bines were harvested on Sunday 5th September 2010, and members congregated at the brewery to hand pick the hop cones, and enjoy a few ales. Hops are dried in our home made ‘oast’ and go into this years brew of ‘Brewers Garden’”.

 

Starting with the basics: a crash course in hops

Let’s go back to the beginning and have a quick crash course in hops. One great place to start is with an episode of BBC Radio 4′s ‘Food Programme’ that looked at the revival of the UK hop industry. It would appear that the first hops to arrive in the UK turned up in 1524 when Flemish planters arrived and started growing them here. Initially they were grown for their medicinal and herbal properties. They were introduced into brewing as a preservative and also to introduce a bitterness to the beers, replacing the use of herbs and other bittering agents, such as bog myrtle, that was used up to that point.

The role of hops in brewing is two-fold. According to Ray Daniels in ‘Designing Great Beers’:

Hops provide bitterness to counteract the sweetness of malt, this making the beverage more palatable. They also provide some antibacterial properties that at one time increased the safety and potability of beer. Today this quality still aids the preservation of beer. Hops also contribute more than just bitterness. Although it seems incredible that a single element of one plant could do so much, hops also contribute appealing flavours and aromas to been when handled in the proper way by the brewer … hops are indeed a source of tremendous richness and variety in beer flavour”.

 

I spoke to Martin Crawford of the Agroforestry Research Trust (who has produced an essential fact sheet about hops), who told me that traditional varieties grow up to 6 metres tall, but that there are dwarf varieties which grow to 2 metres which are better suited to back gardens. According to Martin, there is only one dwarf hop that is commercially available, called ‘First Gold’. Here’s my full interview with him:

Dr Peter Darby: outstanding in his field (sorry)

At the moment, almost all the hops grown in the UK are either grown in Kent (as was documented in George Orwell’s fantastic “Keep the Aspidistras Flying”) or in Herefordshire. I spoke to Dr Peter Darby, who is in charge of the National Hop Association for Wye Hops, and is one of the UK’s leading experts on hop breeding, and asked him why that was. Does it indicate that those are the places with the best soils and the best microclimates for hop growing? Apparently not. It turns out that with the industrialisation of brewing, and the demand for large amounts of beer that was generated by the British Empire, that large workforces of pickers were required, so the large urban centres of London and the West Midlands provided that, and it fitted in nicely with the picking of other crops, most notably apples. Prior to the British Empire hugely increasing demand for beer, hops were grown in most parts of the country.

He told me that the UK hop industry is now relatively stable after years of decline, due mainly to a shift from growing hops to add bitterness to growing hops to add flavour. This has been helped by the emergence of a strong microbrewing culture and more craft brewers. About a quarter of hops grown in the UK are exported, and the UK imports about a third of what is used here. Current production, were it all to be retained for UK brewing, would only be enough to meet two-thirds of demand. Most brewers like to use a mixture of UK hops and imported hops, because, he told me, imported hops grown in sunnier climes, can give beers a ‘high impact flavour’. Traditionally though, they were grown in every county in the UK, and could be again. Here is the interview I did with Dr. Darby:

The advantages and disadvantages of growing urban hops

In some ways, growing hops in ‘patchwork farms’, that is, a number of gardens across a city, is ideal. According to Martin Crawford, the two main challenges that affect hop growing, aphids and mildrew, will sweep through hops on a field scale, but in a more dispersed context, in a more biodiverse setting, should be less of an issue. They can be grown in containers, although they would need to be pretty deep containers as hops need a deep soil. Again though, growing them in containers could actually be a benefit, as it prevents them from suckering, something they are prone to.

Also, given their inclination to climb and to clamber, being able to grow up buildings and other structures, so long as they are accessible for harvesting, can be an advantage. Dr. Darby added that hops are well suited to urban growing because they are classed as horticulture, rather than agriculture. He also stated that hops are a plant that needs quite a lot of attention, something that is easier to provide on a small scale. He added another dwarfing variety that would be suited to urban growing, called Golden Tassels, or ‘Diva’. There are others too, but they are fiercely protected, and can only be grown under licence from the National Hop Association.

Dr Darby cautioned, however, against the idea that growing hops is an easy thing for the amateur to pick up. The pests and diseases to which hops are vulnerable can be dealt with, but knowing what you are looking for and how to deal with it takes some training. City Farmers are already assembling their team of volunteer hop growers, and have been surprised by the levels of interest, and the quarters from which it is coming. One of their local councillors has asked be become one of the growers. It will be interesting to see the degree to which the skills required to to prevent pests and diseases trashing their first harvest can be communicated through videos and leaflets.

Another key challenge revolves around drying herbs on a community scale. On the large scale, hops are dried in huge warehouses where warm air is blown through them. According to Dr Darby, hops must either be used straight off the plant (what is known as “green hopping”) or dried within about 4 hours of being picked. This is to avoid them becoming musty or losing a lot of their volatile oils. To dry them they need to be warmed at 30-60°C, in a long steady dry (10-12 hours), with a high air throughflow in a darkened space in order to bring their moisture down from 80% to 10%.

On the home/community scale this is tricky. It is too low a temperature for the domestic oven, and more like a greenhouse on a hot day (hardly reliable when you have only 4 hours to get the drying underway! Martin Crawford suggests a blacked-out polytunnel or the use of an attic (this is September we’re talking about remember, attics should be pretty hot then). He also states that building a thermostatically controlled medium-sized drier shouldn’t be too complicated. Greg Pilley at Stroud Brewery dries some, but only on the domestic scale. Here is my interview with Greg:

Another challenge for brewers using green hops is that as brewers they are, in effect, flying blind, in that hops usually arrive having been tested for bitterness and so it is not clear what they are introducing into their brew. For this reason, when Greg Pilley brews his ‘Brewer’s Garden’, he still has to use some bought-in hops for the bitterness, and the garden-grown green ones for flavour.

Drying hops at home. Photo courtesy of GreenWellies/flickr

Another practicality is how much could actually be grown in urban gardens. Greg grows 40 plants in his garden, which he reckons yield him 5kg of green hops, which would dry to 3kg. Each year his brewery requires 600kg of hops for its brewing, by which calculation he would need 200 other gardeners doing the same if he were to be drying and using Stroud-grown hops. Do-able but ambitious. The beauty of hops is that, as a climber, you can still grow other things underneath them, and allow them to clamber up buildings or ramble through trees. You can also, as Martin pointed out, eat the young shoots, lightly steamed, they are sometimes referred to as “the poor man’s asparagus”.

So, should the hop fields come to town?

Looked at in isolation, encouraging lots of untrained amateurs to take on planting potentially demanding crop in a dispersed way across a city doesn’t perhaps seem like the brightest idea. However, placed in the context of creating a community growers, sharing their experiences, focused around a community brewery initiative in which they have an interest, it starts to make a lot more sense. As a way of land use and gardening helping to build social capital, it is very valuable. As a story to unpin and help promote a social enterprise it is fantastic. Me, I’m intrigued, and think that certainly for our initiative, this will be a central part of what we are planning to do.

Originally published February 20, 2012 at Transition Culture.

A stunning documentary drom the SABC exposing the South African Coastline in 14 episodes

Oil Profits Falling Fastest Since Lehman From Exxon to Chesapeake

Profits for the biggest U.S. energy producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. are poised to decline the most since the financial meltdown of 2008-09 as the drilling technique known as fracking collapses natural gas prices.

Exxon and Chesapeake Energy Corp., which today reports 2011 earnings, will see net income in 2012 slide 7 percent and 10 percent, respectively, according to the mean of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the biggest drop since 2009 for the companies, the largest U.S. gas producers.

While higher global demand for transportation fuels drove up crude prices about 30 percent since 2009, the domestic gas glut is pinching earnings for producers even as it pushes the U.S. toward energy independence. Especially hurt are Chesapeake and ConocoPhillips, which amassed gas assets before the full impact of fracking on supply growth was apparent, said Michael McMahon, a managing director for energy investments at Pine Brook Partners LLC, a private equity firm in New York.

A Little Bit Louder Now, Chevron Starts To Shout About Davy Jones And The Ultra Deep

About a year ago, speaking at a popular oil and gas conference Chevron tipped its hat to McMoRan’s Jim Bob Moffett and his work in the Gulf of Mexico Shallow Water Ultra Deep (SWUD) play that has been ongoing for more than five years. That event was truly noteworthy because major oil companies rarely, if ever, acknowledge a little player like MMR as being out front and leading the wave on any important new geological play. Chevron has recently promoted the Shallow Water Gulf of Mexico to one of its top three areas of geologic focus around the world. And it is becoming more vocal about its involvement.

Blame Iran And China For Rising Gas Prices

Iran’s Oil Ministry on Sunday announced the suspension of crude oil sales to companies from the U.K and France as the Islamic state responds to a European Union embargo set to take effect July 1. France’s Total and Britain’s BP had already ceased purchasing Iranian oil prior to the announcement, so the impact on supply and demand may be tiny.

Combined with a surprise decision on Saturday by the People’s Bank of China to reduce banks’ reserve requirements for the second time since November, however, Iran’s action helped to boost West Texas Intermediate crude oil above $105 per barrel in electronic trading Monday.

Europe Must Choose Between an Iranian Oil Embargo and Default

Experts say that if Iran stops its oil deliveries to the European Union, the EU will need several weeks to find alternative suppliers. Britain and France, to which Iran stopped deliveries on Saturday, February 19, are unlikely to be hit hard, but Greece, which is tottering under the weight of its economic problems and is the largest importer of Iranian oil, will most likely have to declare a default.

Oil prices spike on Iran export halt. Is $4 gas next?

The price of unleaded gasoline in the U.S. will likely hit a nationwide average of $4 by this summer, said Dan Dicker, oil trader and author of "Oil's Endless Bid." The last time prices topped $4 was 2008 and Dicker said there's a one in three chance that gas could reach $5 a gallon.

If gas prices do head to those lofty levels, that could put a crimp in the economic recovery as consumers will likely cut down on spending if they have to pay more to fill up their cars.

Petrol-price pain on way as Iran racks up tensions

EXPERTS warned last night that fuel prices will get worse as the Iranian crisis deepened with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s regime threatening to expand its oil embargo to the whole of the European Union.

The threat saw the price of a barrel of crude oil climb to an eight-month high of $121 (£76), just days after diesel hit a record level in the UK of 143.05p.

Asia taking lion's share of Iranian oil exports

PARIS — Iran, which on Monday said it planned to halt oil sales to several more European Union states in addition to Britain and France, sends only around a fifth of its exports to the EU, with Asian countries taking the lion’s share, according to U.S. and international oil agencies.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in Washington says that in 2010 four Asian states took around two-thirds of all the crude oil exported by the Islamic Republic, with China buying 20%, Japan 17%, India 16% and South Korea 9%.

Japan says no decision yet on Iran oil import cuts

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's trade and foreign ministers said on Tuesday they haven't reached an agreement yet on how much Tokyo will cut Iranian crude imports to win waivers from U.S. sanctions designed to starve Iran of oil revenue.

Japan is likely to reduce imports of crude oil from Iran by at least 11 percent per year, the Yomiuri newspaper said earlier on Tuesday, to win an exemption from sanctions that could shut Japanese banks out of the United States if they facilitate trade in Iranian crude.

Iran struggles to find new oil customers

Iran is struggling to find a buyer for nearly a quarter of its annual oil exports as looming Western sanctions targeting the country’s nuclear program start to bite the world’s third-biggest crude exporter.

Tehran is trying to sell an extra 500,000 barrels a day of oil, or nearly 23 per cent of what it exported last year, to Chinese and Indian refiners, according to two industry executives familiar with the talks.

Iran deploys warplanes, missiles in ‘exercise’ protecting nuclear sites

TEHRAN — Iran deployed warplanes and missiles Monday in an “exercise” to protect nuclear sites threatened by possible Israeli attacks and warned it could cut oil exports to more EU nations unless sanctions were lifted.

Faulty flange link eyed as possible cause of BP refinery fire in Wash; facility still offline

BLAINE, Wash. — A spokesman says a fire at BP’s Cherry Point refinery might have been caused by a leaky flange connection.

However, BP spokesman Scott Dean said Monday the information filed with the Coast Guard’s National Response Center is very preliminary and the cause remains under investigation.

Ecuador court snubs arbitration panel on Chevron

QUITO, Ecuador—An Ecuadorean appeals court has rejected an order by an international arbitration panel seeking to prevent Amazon rain forest residents from collecting an $18 billion damage award against Chevron Corp. for oil contamination.

FF calls for extensive review of fracking

FIANNA FÁIL energy spokesman Éamon Ó Cuív has called on Minister for Energy Pat Rabbitte to initiate a far more extensive review of fracking than that already commissioned.

Canada revs up for fight over second tar sands oil pipeline

Reporting from Fort St. James, Canada — The prime minister is talking about being "held hostage" by U.S. interests. Radio ads blare, "Stand up to this foreign bully." A Twitter account tells of a "secret plan to target Canada: exposed!"

Could this be Canada? The cheerful northern neighbor: supplier of troops to unpleasant U.S.-led foreign conflicts, reliable trade partner, ally in holding terrorism back from North America's shores, not to mention the No. 1 supplier of America's oil?

U.S. and Mexico Agree on Gulf Oil and Gas Drilling

WASHINGTON — The United States and Mexico on Monday reached agreement on regulating oil and gas development along their maritime border in the Gulf of Mexico, ending years of negotiations and potentially opening more than a million acres to deepwater drilling.

TEPCO opens up Fukushima plant to media

TOKYO — Tokyo Electric Power Co on Monday opened up its stricken Fukushima plant to journalists for the second time, weeks ahead of the anniversary of the March 11 disasters, and insisted the crippled complex was in cold shutdown.

As part of TEPCO’s efforts to reassure the public, it allowed reporters to see the ongoing work to make safe the reactors that were hit by last year’s quake-tsunami.

KEPCO shuts down nuclear reactor

TOKYO — Kansai Electric Power Co (KEPCO) on Monday night completed the shutdown of No. 3 reactor at the Takahama nuclear plant in Fukui Prefecture, a KEPCO spokeswoman said Tuesday.

The reactor was shut down completely just after midnight, leaving all 11 reactors around the country owned by KEPCO idle, she said.

Energy debates need imagination, public interest and honesty

We often focus on what it may take to create new energy paradigms so called renewable or nuclear futures but what about asking what it might take for us to simply keep the foundations of our current societies intact? Do we ever ask ourselves such questions? How we ensure the simple maintenance of our vast and complex society, our built infrastructure, our technology, our institutions of learning, production, government and trade and our way of life just never seems to enter our heads. Maybe its all just too, too complex to appreciate. In theory that is. Like most things, it is all likely to become much clearer in practice if things start to unravel a bit!

Motorists hit by record surge in gas prices

NEW YORK — Gasoline prices have never been higher this time of the year in the U.S.

At $3.53 a gallon, prices are already up 25 cents since Jan. 1. And experts say they could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April.

"You're going to see a lot more staycations this year," says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, referring to people staying at home on their vacations. "When the price gets anywhere near $4, you really see people react."

Concern high over global oil supplies

The risks to global oil supplies are greater than at any time in the past 30 years, according to a leading banker.

Tension in the Gulf, sanctions against Iran and disruptions to African exports have created a threat level last reached when tankers transiting the Gulf were attacked during theIran-Iraq war.

"Not since the late 1970s/early 1980s has there been such a serious threat to oil supply," said Soozhana Choi, an energy analyst at Deutsche Bank, adding that Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz were unsettling. Oil futures in London are expected to open near an eight-month high today, having closed at US$119 a barrel on Friday, while US crude oil ended the week at $103 a barrel.

Oil Rises to 9-Month High; Iran Says Halts Europe Exports

Oil rose to a nine-month high in New York after Iran said it halted some crude exports and investors bet that fuel demand will increase as Europe moves closer to bailing out Greece.

Futures climbed as much as 1.9 percent for a fourth day of gains, the longest rising streak since December. Iran will supply crude to “new customers” instead of companies in the U.K. and France, the oil ministry’s news website, Shana, said, citing Alireza Nikzad Rahbar, a spokesman. Prices also advanced as European finance ministers prepared to meet to discuss a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) aid package for Greece, the country’s second rescue in less than two years.

Japan January Liquefied Natural Gas Imports Rise 28.2%; Oil Purchases Drop

Japan’s liquefied natural gas imports rose to a record in January after the Fukushima nuclear disaster led to the shutdown of most of the country’s atomic reactors, causing utilities to use more fossil fuels.

The nation’s LNG imports climbed 28.2 percent from a year earlier to 8.15 million metric tons, according to a preliminary report released today by the Ministry of Finance.

API: Taxing onshore oil, gas wrong policy

WASHINGTON (UPI) -- A proposal to raise royalty rates for onshore oil and natural gas in the United States sends the wrong message about domestic production, trade group API says.

U.S. President Barack Obama kept taxes on oil and natural gas production in his budget proposal that some analysts say could push the bill for developers to more than $27 billion during the next decade.

Russian Oil Boom Ending Signals Lower Energy Tax That Risks Unrest

Russia’s 12-year oil boom is nearing its peak, forcing the next president to decide whether to cut taxes and revive production or use the windfall from $100 oil to boost public spending and quell mounting unrest.

As Vladimir Putin campaigns for a second stint in the Kremlin, the nation’s existing fields are losing pressure and oil companies OAO Rosneft, OAO Lukoil and TNK-BP (BP/) say production taxes give little incentive to invest. Since Putin first became president in 2000, crude output has grown 57 percent to 10 million barrels a day, surpassing Saudi Arabia and flooding the state treasury.

Which Presidential Candidate Will Solve the Gas Problem?

According to an article in USA Today, as spring progresses into summer, gas prices will only go up. This will negatively impact the economy, slowing growth that is "only moderate" after a recession. Gas prices are a hot topic this election year. Newt Gingrich is saying we must make use of more of our own resources, a position that Rick Perry also took early in his campaign. Is it really that simple?

Iraq’s January oil exports slightly decline, but revenues up on higher oil prices

BAGHDAD — Iraq’s oil ministry says oil exports have declined slightly in January compared to the previous month.

Monday’s statement says last month oil exports averaged 2.107 million barrels per day, down from 2.145 million barrels per day in December.

Gazprom Says Fully Restored Gas Flows To Europe

MOSCOW – Russia has fully restored natural gas shipments to Europe, the country's state gas firm said Monday, after it had been unable to meet rising demand in recent weeks due to cold weather across the continent.

Gazprom downplays U.S. natural gas

MOSCOW (UPI) -- Rising expectations about U.S. natural gas exports doesn't mean it would be a major competitor to Russia's Gazprom, an executive said.

With Russia falling to the No. 2 position in terms of natural gas production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration last month said the United States would be a net exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2016. Initial sales would be around 1.1 billion cubic feet per day.

Poland, EU Discussing Shale Gas Incentives - Talisman CEO

LONDON – Poland is still in discussions with the European Union on developing a tax regime that incentivizes shale gas exploration in the eastern European country, Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) Chief Executive John Manzoni said Monday.

Iran Stops Exporting Oil to U.K., French Buyers

Iran stopped sales of crude to French and British buyers to pre-empt a European Union ban on imports of its oil and as OPEC’s second-biggest producer negotiates contracts to supply China.

Iran “will give its crude oil to new customers instead of French and U.K. companies,” the Shana oil ministry news website reported, citing Alireza Nikzad Rahbar, a ministry spokesman.

Iran finds new oil customers

TEHRAN (UPI) -- An Iranian official said it was selling crude oil to new customers after opting to stop oil deliveries to British and French companies.

Iran says may extend oil cut to more EU countries

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — An Iranian semiofficial news agency says Tehran is considering extending an oil embargo on France and Britain to other European countries.

IEA says EU could live with abrupt Iran oil halt

(Reuters) - The European Union could cope with an abrupt halt by Iran of its oil exports to the region as buyers of Iranian oil are already adjusting to the EU's forthcoming ban on Iranian shipments, an International Energy Agency official said on Monday.

Israeli Attack on Iran Would Be Destabilizing, Joint Chiefs’ Dempsey Says

An Israeli attack on Iran would be “destabilizing,” Army General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said.

“It’s not prudent at this point to decide to attack Iran,” Dempsey said today on CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS” program. The U.S. government is confident the Israelis “understand our concerns,” he said.

Iran: More high oil prices ahead for EU

TEHRAN (UPI) -- Last week's spike in oil prices is what's in store for Europe if it follows through on moves to ban Iranian imports, a senior Tehran lawmaker says.

Expert: Attack on Iran may mean $200/barrel oil

(CBS News) An Israeli air strike on Iran, with the intent of knocking out that country's nuclear facilities, may only speed Tehran's race to build a bomb, a nuclear policy expert told CBS News.

China's Unipec to take less Iran oil in 2012

BEIJING (Reuters) - One of China's two major buyers of Iranian crude has reduced the amount it will take this year although by how much was unclear, trade sources said on Monday, after expectations that China would be the buyer of last resort for Iranian crude displaced by sanctions.

Sudan oil dispute keeps tanker from Japan port

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A ship carrying disputed Sudanese crude is awaiting permission to dock in Japan, unable to unload its cargo for the past week because of uncertainty surrounding the ownership of the oil, shipping sources and traders said on Monday.

Factbox: Key political risks to watch in Yemen

DUBAI (Reuters) - Political unrest and economic deterioration continued to plague Yemen ahead of the February 21 presidential election many hoped would give Yemen a chance to bring about reforms that could help the country recover from a year of protests.

China’s Zhai Urges End to Syria Violence After Damascus Talks With Assad

China’s vice foreign minister, Zhai Jun, urged Syria to end violence and restore stability after a meeting with President Bashar al-Assad.

Syria Presses Crackdown on Protestors After China Urges an End to Violence

Syrian security forces maintained their crackdown against opponents of President Bashar al-Assad’s rule after China urged an end to the violence.

Syrian Gunmen Kill Officials as U.K. Foreign Secretary Warns of Civil War

Opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s rule stepped up their deadly attacks against government officials as the violence of the past 11 months pushes the country toward civil war.

Syrian opposition sees radicals at work for regime

BEIRUT – The Free Syrian Army says terrorists are operating in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime as its military forces continue to bombard opposition cities despite United Nations condemnation.

Aref Hamoud, a colonel in the Free Syrian Army, said his units are encountering a growing number of radical elements in some parts of the country. He said the radicals are Syrians and not foreigners from al-Qaeda.

Syrian rebel: Uprising is an 'orphan revolution' without foreign support

(CNN) -- President Barack Obama's top military adviser says it is premature to aid in arming the Syrian opposition, reinforcing the belief of a rebel commander that the uprising is an "orphan revolution" without the international support prevalent in other Arab Spring revolts.

Aramco, Sumitomo May Delay Rabigh Chemical Expansion, HSBC Says

Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Sumitomo Chemical Co. (4005) may postpone a $6 billion plan to expand their joint-venture petrochemical plant in the Red Sea town of Rabigh, HSBC Holdings Plc said.

Hindustan Petroleum to construct underground storage facilities

VISAKHAPATNAM: Public Sector Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) has taken up construction of underground storage facilities for keeping crude oil stocks which could be used to meet petroleum requirement during oil crisis, Union Minister S Jaipal Reddy said.

Director: Nabucco's obituary premature

VIENNA (UPI) -- Existing plans for the Nabucco natural gas pipeline for Europe make the best proposition to diversify the regional energy sector, an official said.

Europe is looking for ways to break the Russian grip on the natural gas sector by pursuing a series of pipelines for the so-called Southern Corridor. Of those, Nabucco is the most ambitious though its $10 billion price tag and lack of firm supplier commitments is causing critics to emerge.

Canada ‘threatens EU’ over oil sands move

Canada has threatened to take its oil sands spat with the EU to the World Trade Organisation ahead of a key vote in Brussels on the contentious issue later this week, a report has claimed.

Canada fighting for oil pipelines

OTTAWA (UPI) -- The Canadian government is working to establish a new consumer base for crude oil in light of U.S. opposition to a planned oil pipeline, a scholar said.

Head of Canadian navy says climate change boosts need for bigger presence in Arctic

CALGARY - The head of the Royal Canadian Navy says Canada needs to bolster its military presence in the Arctic to prepare for a boom in human and economic activity resulting largely from climate change.

Global warming is thought to be occurring faster in the North than anywhere else. The gradual disappearance of sea ice is opening up commercial shipping as well as previously inaccessible areas rich with oil, natural gas and mineral resources.

U.S. slowly opening arctic waters for oil

WASHINGTON (UPI) -- Cautious exploration for oil and natural gas off the coast of Alaska will boost U.S. energy security, the U.S. Interior Department secretary said.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said he saw "great promise" in the resource base in Alaska. In the arctic frontier, he said, cautious exploration would support the goal of increasing domestic oil and natural gas production.

North Slope Blowout on Land Clearly Shows We Are Not Ready to Deal with an Accident in the Arctic

"Yesterday, Spain's big oil company Repsol drilled into a methane pocket that resulted in an exploration drilling blowout on Alaska's Arctic shores. This is yet another wake-up call for the Obama Administration that oil and gas activities are risky business. We are incredibly lucky this is not an oil well blowout offshore in the Arctic Ocean; because the nation is not prepared to deal with an accident like that in offshore Arctic waters where the ability to respond is limited at best, and impossible at worst. As of right now 42,000 gallons of drilling lubricant or "mud" have spilled and an unknown amount of methane has escaped.

Agenda 21 provokes conspiracy fears in Chattanooga

The Chattanooga Tea Party has been talking for months about Agenda 21, an action plan adopted at a 1992 conference of the United Nations. The action plan calls for governments worldwide -- national, state and local -- to focus on sustainable development.

But tea party groups and others say there is more to the plan that intrudes on the private rights of individuals. They say the agenda proposes such things as trying to make people live closer to cities instead of giving them free choice, guiding such things as annexation to give cities more control of individuals and cities using code enforcement as a way to trump individual rights.

Stars & Cars: Adrian Grenier Awaits the Electric-Vehicle Revolution, Does Not Advocate Knee Driving

I’ve been waiting for the electric-vehicle revolution. I live in New York and I don’t need a car there. I need a car mostly when I’m in L.A., to go to auditions or meetings. And these new electric cars go 100 miles on a charge. You talk about the price of gas these days—not only the financial cost but the environmental implications of oil, and the political conflicts connected to oil scarcity. Advancing electric cars seems the way to go.

Pathways to a Lower Carbon & More Electrified Future - Unveiling the Equinox Blueprint: Energy 2030

WATERLOO, ON /PRNewswire/ - Imagine a world with too much energy... clean energy. How different would our human civilization be with fewer energy limitations - less risk of climate change, no peak oil, and more renewable ways to provide power to an exploding global population?

But, this is not our present scenario. Today's energy needs are met largely by high-carbon sources and inefficient technologies. But, is there a better way? How could we use the latest scientific knowledge to best prepare ourselves for a lower carbon, more electrified future?

India May Levy 19% Import Tax on Power Gear Including From China

India’s cabinet is likely to approve a proposal to impose a 19 percent duty on imports of power generation equipment to help local manufacturers Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL) and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT) compete for orders with Chinese rivals, according to a government official.

Hydropower has big potential; many detractors

Hydroelectric power is climate friendly, but it remains a disputed energy source. It's not always the case that renewable energy has a positive impact on the environment, as some major dam projects have proven.

U.K. Wind Power Reached Record High of 3,428 Megawatts Feb. 17

U.K. wind generation set a record on the evening of Feb. 17, according to National Grid Plc data compiled by Bloomberg.

Wind generation peaked at 3,428 megawatts at 9:20 p.m. on that day, the data show.

U.K. Needs to Streamline Marine Energy Fund Process, Report Says

The U.K. needs to streamline its funding process for marine energy and provide clarity on support beyond 2017 so it doesn’t repeat the mistake that allowed it to lose its lead in wind power to Denmark in the 1980s, a government report said.

Energy poverty killing more people than malaria

A lack of clean energy for cooking is causing severe respiratory diseases that kill around two million people each year, says a scientist from the University of British Columbia.

"Energy poverty is one of the biggest human welfare issues of our day," says Hisham Zerriffi, who is presenting his research at the 2012 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. "We're talking about more people who die each year from cooking than from malaria."

A Plan to Restrict Flight Paths, to Hush the Blender Over Long Island

Mary-Grace Tomecki, a Floral Park resident who lives near the train track route, said that during the summer helicopters passed overhead every five minutes and it sounded like “being in a blender.” She said it made it difficult to tend to the morning glories and tomatoes she grows.

“It would be an incredible improvement in quality of life,” Ms. Tomecki, an academic adviser at New York University, said of the ban. “It means actually being able to have a barbecue on Friday night and be able to talk.”

Textile Recycling Is Thriving in New York

Last May, the city formed a partnership with Housing Works, a group that helps homeless people who are H.I.V.-positive, to pick up donated clothing at apartment buildings in one of the first large-scale consumer textile recycling programs in the country. The goal is to capture most of the 200,000 tons of apparel and other textiles that New Yorkers throw away each year but that could be reused instead and thereby reduce the city’s garbage disposal costs.

Economic crisis slows U.S. population growth

The U.S. population is growing at the slowest rate since the Great Depression after two decades of robust increases.

Veteran climate researcher sees major threats

The world needs an immediate reduction in the burning of fossil fuel to head off potentially disastrous effects from global warming, a prominent American scientist warned Sunday in Vancouver.

James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and an iconic figure among climate researchers, said "even the skeptical scientists now agree" that Earth is undergoing a warming trend.

Attacks paid for by big business are 'driving science into a dark era'

Most scientists, on achieving high office, keep their public remarks to the bland and reassuring. Last week Nina Fedoroff, the president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), broke ranks in a spectacular manner.

She confessed that she was now "scared to death" by the anti-science movement that was spreading, uncontrolled, across the US and the rest of the western world.

Preparing for the flood: Visualizations help communities plan for sea-level rise

The four alternate scenarios show Delta over the next century where the municipality adopts various strategies to prepare for sea-level rise including: raising the dikes ("Hold The Line," Fig. 3); building offshore barrier islands to absorb the impact of incoming storms ("Reinforce and Reclaim," Fig 4); moving parts of the community out of the floodplain and on to higher ground ("Managed Retreat," Fig. 5); and reducing vulnerability through design by raising homes, roads and critical infrastructure above the floodplain ("Build Up," Fig. 6).

The visualizations packages not only show what the region could look at the end of the century but also takes into account other important factors like the cost of each solution for the municipality, the cost to individual property owners, and the trade-offs between protecting roads, habitat, homes, waterfront views and agricultural production.

Rising tide of sea-level warnings drowned out by wave of shoreline development

The science that backs this advice gets drowned out when developers wave big money at county officials craving revenue. A classic "lose-lose" - for the environment and for taxpayers - results.

As the human population has climbed past seven billion, and the consumption per person of everything from burgers to blue jeans has risen inexorably, the finiteness of Earth’s freshwater is becoming ever more apparent.

Virtual water trade over the period 1996-2005. Only the biggest flows are shown. Source: Hoekstra and Mekonnen, PNAS early edition, 2012.

Image credit: Dry river bed in Adelaide, South Australia by Michael Coghlan/flickr

Originally posted at National Geographic

Recent visitors to R-Squared will notice a distinct new look to the site that impacts all of Consumer Energy Report. This is a result of some long overdue upgrades, and I would like to detail some of the changes for readers.

Some of the code in the previous site was unnecessarily complex. This made the site load slowly. We have streamlined the code so you should see the site loading much faster than before.

The commenting system was also less than ideal. One could leave comments after a post, and then it replicated that in the forums. The intention was that the forums would have more functionality than the comments after the posts, but it was really just confusing for some people. In addition, when someone commented on an older post, it didn’t show up in the recent comments column to the right. Now, not only do they show up, but the most recent seven comments show up instead of the most recent four comments. Further, the comments will all be consolidated in a single location — after each post — and we have added increased functionality. I think the biggest improvement is that now comments can be threaded, which makes it much easier to manage different conversations.

New Writers

You may notice four new tabs at the top:

Biodiversivist — Econbrowser — Energy, Security, Policy — R-Squared Energy Column

That brings me to our next major change. We have added some new writers to Consumer Energy Report. Note that these writers will each have their own columns, and will focus on different topics. The new members on our team are: James Hamilton, Andrew Holland, and Russ Finley.

James Hamilton is a Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego, has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board and has testified before the United States Congress. He has also been a consultant for the National Academy of Sciences, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the European Central Bank. James is the author of the Econbrowser blog, which is an excellent resource for people interested in high level economic analysis . His blog here on CER will be dedicated solely to the content he writes relating to energy. See his first article here: Reducing Petroleum Consumption from Transportation

Andrew Holland is a Washington-based expert on energy, climate change, and infrastructure policy. He currently serves as Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate Policy at the American Security Project, a non-partisan think tank based in Washington, DC. He will cover the topics of energy and the environment from a security, economic and legislative perspective. See his first article here: Energy Security, Economic and Environmental Stability

Russ Finley is a fellow engineer (mechanical) and an avid environmentalist. Many of the regular readers here may be familiar with him as a frequent commenter to my essays. He’ll be covering the topic of energy from an environmental perspective. See his first article here: Biofuels Update: How is the Industry Doing?

We hope to be adding more new writers in the future, and if you think that you fit the bill — or would like to suggest someone else that does — send a resume or details to Sam Avro: editor [at] consumerenergyreport [dot] com .

Upcoming Additions

We are also in the process of redesigning the homepage, which for now is being redirected to the Energy Ticker page. Additionally, in response to many requests, we are in the process of rolling out a mobile version of the entire site. This will alleviate many of the common problems that mobile users experience while navigating the site, such as height and width issues, and by minimizing the code even further it will speed up the loading of pages and comments on mobile devices which usually operate on a slower connection than desktop and laptop computers.

User feedback and bug reports are greatly encouraged, and can be sent to: webmaster [at] consumerenergyreport [dot] com .

Source: New York Times
Credits: Eric L. Lewis
Dated: 2012-02-13

Britain Shouldn’t Aid a Lawless America

The British government will be held in contempt of court later this week if it does not physically produce a prisoner of war whom its special forces captured in 2004 and then handed over to American soldiers.

The current legal drama began in February 2004, when two Pakistani rice merchants, Yunus Rahmatullah and Amanatullah Ali, disappeared on a business trip to Iran. They were held incommunicado for nearly a year before their families learned that they had been captured by British forces in Iraq and then turned over to American soldiers.

The two men were transferred in accordance with an American-British-Australian agreement mandating observance of the Geneva Conventions and stipulating that all prisoners must be returned, if requested, to the country that originally transferred them.

read more

Source: The Telegraph
Credits: Peter Allen
Dated: 2012-02-17
Refer Also:

• Hitler's secret photos reveal Nazi leader's vanity 2012-02-09
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• Images of Adolf Hitler celebrating Christmas 2011-12-27
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Hitler had son with French teen

Adolf Hitler had a son with a French teenager while serving as a soldier during the First World War, according to new evidence.

Hitler is said to have had an affair with Charlotte Lobjoie, 16, as he took a break from the trenches in June 1917 PhotoCredits: AP

Jean-Marie Loret, who died in 1985 aged 67, never met his father, but went on to fight Nazi forces during the Second World War.

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